Mahila, Kisan, ‘OBC Safe Hain’, Vidarbha Flip & Sharad’s Collapse: 5 Factors Behind Mahayuti’s Maharashtra Win

Last Updated:November 23, 2024, 12:04 IST

BJP has played the lead role in the Mahayuti by leading in more seats that the entire MVA combined. It is the single-largest party with seats in the high three-digit mark

The most critical reason for the BJP’s big performance is the collapse of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and the defeat of the Congress in direct contests with the BJP. (AFP)

Support from women and farmers, an OBC consolidation post the ‘Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain’ slogan of the prime minister, a total flip in the Vidarbha region, and the collapse of Uddav Thackeray — these five major reasons are behind the sweep of the Mahayuti (MY) in the Maharashtra elections, led by BJP.

With 53 lakh more women voting in these elections compared to 2019, and their voting percentage rising by six percentage points, the female voter has rewarded the Mahayuti for the ‘Ladki Behan Yojana’ under which over 2.5 crore women in the state got five instalments of Rs 1,500 each till the elections. With the ‘first-mover’ advantage in this scheme, the Mahayuti promised hiking the amount to Rs 2,100 — something that the women voters have reposed their faith in rather than the Rs 3,000 promise of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). It is clear that these women voters transcended caste barriers, as well as religious barriers, to vote for the Mahayuti.

BJP has played the lead role in the Mahayuti by leading in more seats that the entire MVA combined. It is the single-largest party with seats in the high three-digit mark. Another big reason for this is farmers supporting the MY in a big way after BJP reached out to the cotton and soybean farmers with assurances on the MSP issue. BJP promised to procure cotton crops above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) this season and to procure soybean under the Price Support Scheme with moisture content tolerance of up to 15 per cent. It seems farmers were no longer upset with the Mahayuti.

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BJP also departed from convention to promise a full loan waiver for farmers — something it has usually not done in state elections. This is responsible for the complete flip in the Vidarbha region which the Mahayuti has won in a big way this time, after losing eight out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats here in the general elections six months ago.

The fourth, and a major factor, for the Mahayuti’s win is the strong OBC consolidation in the Mahayuti’s favour, driven by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan ‘Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain’. The slogan was such a draw that Rahul Gandhi had to keep his last press conference in the Maharashtra campaign around the same. While MVA had said the slogan is divisive, it has served its purpose of a Hindu consolidation in Maharashtra. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Maratha-Muslim-Mahar (Ambedkarite Buddhist) consolidation had hurt the MY as the ‘Constitution is in danger’ narrative run amok. Mahayuti had faced a double whammy in the Lok Sabha polls. While Marathas then voted against them due to the unfulfilled promise of reservation, the Other Backward Classes (OBC), too, were upset with the BJP’s overtures to the Marathas.

However, this time, the PM’s slogan became the dominant narrative and counter consolidation of the 38 per cent OBC vote in Maharashtra.

The final, and perhaps the most critical reason for the BJP’s big performance, is the collapse of Sharad Pawar’s party and the defeat of the Congress in direct contests with the BJP. There were 76 seats in which BJP and Congress were in direct fights — BJP is leading in nearly 2/3rds of these seats. The high strike rate of the BJP has hurt the Congress heavily. Sharad Pawar was seen as a threat in the BJP camp before the elections but his collapse and finish at the last spot has hurt the MYA. Also, BJP has been able to snatch a lot of the ‘Hindu vote’ of Uddhav Thackeray’s party with its popular slogan ‘Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain’. The good performance of Eknath Shinde has also hurt Uddhav in the direct contests.

A hidden weapon of the BJP has been the strong RSS groundwork in Maharashtra in these elections — the right-wing organisation did over 60,000 small meetings in the state and mobilised the BJP voter to come out and vote. That reflected in the record 5 per cent higher voting in the state this time, as well as the 80 per cent+ strike rate of the BJP in the 152 seats it contested in these elections.

The million-dollar question now is — with its big tally, which is more than double that of Eknath Shinde’s party, will the BJP insist upon Devendra Fadnavis as the chief minister, as he has the backing of the RSS too?

News elections Mahila, Kisan, ‘OBC Safe Hain’, Vidarbha Flip & Sharad’s Collapse: 5 Factors Behind Mahayuti’s Maharashtra Win