Many 'X Factors' In US Election 2024, Expect Unpredictability: Dhruva Jaishankar | Exclusive

Last Updated:November 06, 2024, 00:11 IST

In an exclusive conversation with CNN-News18 on ground zero, the executive director of ORF America indicated that the winner in Pennsylvania, whether it is Trump or Harris, may go on to become the next US President

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. (File pic/AP)

While there is much interest in India and around the world on who will become the next President of the United States, a lot hinges on a bunch of swing states and some key communities. In an exclusive conversation with CNN-News18 on ground zero, Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of ORF America, untangled these knotty issues and a lot more, including what these elections may mean for Indo-US ties. Edited excerpts:

Just how big is this election, what are the stakes?

It’s a big election. It feels like every four years there’s a big election in the US. It’s a very divided polity. Roughly 45% of Americans vote Republican, 45% vote Democrat and really it’s only about 5 to 10% whose opinion has to be swayed each election. The divides are quite deep, across age lines, gender lines, culture lines; rural-urban I think there’s a big divide there. So I think this is playing out again as it is every four years.

What do you think it’ll boil down to in such a close race? Is it the swing states, is it who’s motivated more, is it anti-incumbency? What’s the big X factor?

There are lots of X factors, which is what’s making it hard to predict. The polls show pretty much a 50-50 split. Seven states will really determine this election. They’re called the swing states. I find it hard to believe the winner will not be the winner of Pennsylvania.

You think that that would be a state that just mathematically…unless many other results go in a very unexpected manner, that’s a state that either candidate will have to win to win?

That’s the biggest and the margins are going to be very thin. So ultimately it’ll come down to voter enthusiasm for the two candidates, whether more of Trump supporters come out to vote on Election Day or whether more of Harris’s voters come out. And that will really determine the outcome.

So you know one interesting thing, and I guess in elections other than 2021 one, one new phenomenon we’ve been seeing is a lot of people are voting early, either by mail or by in-person early voting.  I think 75 million is the figure that I last checked, that’s almost half the electorate. Is there anything in there for us to know that that’s perhaps the way in which the election is going?

So that has really changed a large part because of Covid. The last election happened during the pandemic and that led to a lot more early voting. Traditionally early voting has favoured Democrats and so those are counted later, which suggests that in many states we’ll see a blue wave, Democratic swing later. But it will really depend on other factors. One of the things that’s happened this time is the signs that more Republicans are voting early. So the balance may not be as skewed towards Democrats as in the past. But again we will only know after counting is completed.

Let’s talk a little bit about the Indian-American community. There are about 22 and a half million of them. Generally, they’ve been sort of Democrat-leaning. This time are you seeing anything different?

So traditionally about two-thirds are registered Democrats and about 25% are registered Republicans. There is some indication, there was a recent survey done by the Carnegie Endowment, there’s another one of Asian-American voters, it suggests that the picture might be a bit more complicated, particularly amongst younger men who might be gravitating more towards the Republican party. But on balance, I would expect the majority will still vote Democrat.

Tell us a little bit more about the younger men because it’s not just the Indian-American young men. We’re seeing that amongst African-American young men. We’re seeing among Hispanic young men, of course, White young men. Why are they gravitating towards Trump?

There are many sociological reasons. There’s actually a very good book on this, on the frustrations of younger men, particularly in developed economies including the US, that they see few opportunities in the job market, they think that the sort of liberal agenda that prioritises certain constituents including women has been to their net disadvantage. And Trump and others seem to channel some of those frustrations. So they see an appeal there and they see the doors closing on them more within the Democratic party.

There’s also the other side, which is women at least in this cycle seem to be very motivated for Harris because of the abortion issue.

So you know just for people who don’t follow it, this has been a very divisive issue. The Supreme Court in the US overruled Roe vs Wade, which was a landmark legislation that gave essentially reproductive rights to women. And I think the fear among some women is that if Trump is elected, he will put on the courts, including the Supreme Court, potentially more conservative candidates so that this will become more difficult in the years to come. Whereas, again a Democratic president, because they get to appoint justices, will put in place more liberal-minded people.

I want to come back to the Indian-American community. One big issue has always been about visas, immigration, H1B, etc. And I think from the Trump years, people remember that he was very sort of strident on H1B. Do you see that changing if Trump were to come back to power again?

I think immigration is a big issue he has campaigned on. At different times he and his advisers have had different messages around immigration. Some say he’s only focused on illegal immigration, that he doesn’t have a problem with legal, particularly high-skilled, which are often Indians, and again some of his advisers have emphasised that. But I think there’s another issue, which is he plans on actually cutting funding for a lot of immigration processing, and that, there will be people, and this will happen I think to Indians, which is the people who are coming here as students, as business people, on work visas, and they may find that just the bureaucracy is…it’ll take much longer. And this happened in between 2017 and 2020. And in fact, what the Biden ministry was trying to do was reduce those backlogs. But even now the wait times, if you go to a consulate or an embassy in India, the wait times are very long. So I think that’s not again directed at a particular immigration policy. But I think those are the kinds of complications that one could anticipate if Trump is elected.

What about the bilateral relationship itself? I mean has it got to a stage where it doesn’t matter whether a Democrat is President or a Republican is President?

I think it matters. I think the issue is, India is not an election issue like Russia is, Israelis, China is, to some degree Iran is, North Korea is. But India is not. And that’s good news. Nobody is campaigning on a tougher line, or both are trying to appeal to Indian-American voters. I think the emphasis will be different though. So for Trump, I anticipate that we’ll have some challenges on immigration as I mentioned but also trade, and this is again not India-specific, he wants to change trade policy very broadly. And this may include tariffs against India, which will lead to retaliatory tariffs by India against the US. I think with Harris also, there may be a shift because there’s no guarantee that her advisers will be the same as Biden’s advisers. And I think we may see more of a sort of progressive agenda, again globally not directed against any particular country.

But in the context of India, what may that mean?

I think it’ll be sort of, people fear more preachiness on certain issues related to Indian domestic politics, which by and large actually the Biden administration has stayed away from, a less strategic approach to the Indo-Pacific, just in the list of priorities that will not be so high. Will there be radical changes? I don’t anticipate that, but I do think there will be some changes around the margins. But it’ll depend on personalities.

Just as we sort of wind down, is there any enthusiasm amongst the Indian-American community that Harris is of Indian heritage, Indian ancestry, and therefore, this is historic, for want of a better word?

You think it would be a bigger issue than it has been. Surprisingly it hasn’t come up, and one can wonder. I think, primarily, she has campaigned as an African-American political figure. And in some ways, it makes sense. They’re a much larger percentage of the population that has been her base where she’s risen up politically. She hasn’t shied away from talking about in particular her mother and grandfather, her Indian heritage, the cultural attributes, but nor has she been very enthusiastic in claiming that mantle. So as a result, again this is more anecdotal, we haven’t really seen this, there hasn’t been the level of enthusiasm we’ve seen amongst Indian-Americans about this being a potentially historic first Indian-American or Indian-origin President of the US.

Finally, I know it’s close, everyone is saying it’s going to go down to the wire, it’ll boil down to a handful of states, but what does your gut say?

I’m not in the business of making predictions. I know mostly to look at the different possibilities. I think one thing to expect is unpredictability. I think every one of the last few elections has surprised in some way, both Indian elections, as somebody who follows Indian politics, but also the US election. So I think expect some uncertainty, expect some surprises, even if around the margins. But let’s see what happens.

And we can get a result on Tuesday night?

No, we won’t. That is something I think that’s pretty predictable. We won’t get a result I think on election night itself, partly by how they count votes. So a state like Nevada takes sometimes maybe days to count the votes. And if it’s a close election that will matter. Even Pennsylvania will take some time. So it may take a day or two at the very least to get a full result.

Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)

News world Many 'X Factors' In US Election 2024, Expect Unpredictability: Dhruva Jaishankar | Exclusive