Trump, Harris Both Confident Of US Election Win. Here Are The X Factors They Are Banking On

Last Updated:November 05, 2024, 10:36 IST

Locked up in a tight race, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have clear avenues to secure the presidency. Here are reasons why both have fair chances of a win in the US elections.

Kamala Harris/Donald Trump (Photo: Reuters)

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a razor-thin race and as a tense America votes for either Republican Trump or Democratic Vice President Harris for president, the two White House contenders have already made their final pitches to voters.

In Pittsburgh on Monday, Trump delivered what his campaign aides described as his closing argument after his previous attempt at a mass rally at Madison Square Garden in New York was derailed by crude and racist jokes. On the other hand, Harris, the Democratic nominee, spent a day in Pennsylvania and was later en route to Pittsburgh. She held her final rally in Philadelphia in the evening.

Not just the United States of America, but the whole world is trying to crack the presidential race deadlock most of the polls showed, both at the national level and in the all-important battleground states, including all the swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the industrial midwest, Nevada and Arizona in the west, and Georgia and North Carolina in the south.

The polls are so close, within the margin of error, that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could be two or three points better off – enough to win comfortably.

While the guessing game continues, here are some reasons supporting victory for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris individually.

WHY DONALD TRUMP COULD WIN US PRESIDENTIAL RACE

1. THE US IS STRUGGLING, AND NOT BECAUSE OF TRUMP

Back in 2020, Trump declared himself the winner in the early morning hours after election day, three days before the first television networks made a call. He ultimately lost to his Democratic opponent Joe Biden, but never accepted the result and continues to falsely assert that it was stolen from him through widespread fraud.

This week, the Republican candidate told reporters that he hoped to be able to declare victory on election day, although election experts have cautioned that it could take several days for the final result to be known, especially if there are demands for vote recounts in some key areas.

However, the country has been facing bigger issues as Joe Biden continued to be in power. The US job growth has slowed drastically in October, hit temporarily by hurricanes and labour strikes, in a final major economic snapshot in a razor-edge presidential election campaign where cost-of-living worries have dominated voter concerns.

Also, the world’s biggest economy added just 12,000 jobs last month, far below expectations and down from a revised 223,000 in September, said the Department of Labor. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 per cent.

Most Americans also say they have been struggling with inflation daily. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation in the US has hit the highest levels since the 1970s, suggesting that the US voters seem hungry for a change. This also gives a chance to Trump wherein he can ask, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

2. TRUMP’s STANCE ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Going by how the issue of illegal immigration has snowballed in the US, Trump’s warnings have only resonated.

As per the various polls, voters trust Donald Trump more in resolving the immigration crisis, especially after encounters at the Mexican border hit record levels under Biden, and the influx impacted states far from the border. Some polls also suggested Trump was doing better than the previous elections.

3. TRUMP STILL ENJOYS SUPPORT

Despite the serious charges against him over the January 6 2021 Capitol riots and a string of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, the support Donald Trump has garnered remains decently above 40 per cent, reports have suggested.

Trump once said he has been a “victim of a political witch-hunt", and that was believed by many, even though Democrats and conservatives called him “unfit for office".

With such massive support, Trump just needs to win over enough of the small slice of undecided voters.

4. NO WARS STARTED WHEN TRUMP WAS IN POWER

In most of his speeches, Donald Trump has often claimed he could stop the ongoing wars (Russia, Ukraine, and Israel, Hamas). He has also pointed out that no major wars began while he was at the White House, and many of Trump’s detractors say he undermines America’s alliances by cosying up to authoritarian leaders.

Many Americans are angry, for different reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel – and think America is weaker under Biden.

A majority of voters, especially men who Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.

WHY KAMALA HARRIS COULD WIN US PRESIDENTIAL RACE

1. MORE AMERICANS HAVE SUPPORTED JOE BIDEN

Trump remains a deeply polarising figure. In 2020, Donald Trump may have won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden, who endorsed Harris for the president.

In various campaigns, debates, and interviews, Harris has emphasised Trump’s return may not be good for the United States. She has even called him “fascist", “a threat to democracy", “friends of dictators" and more.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in July, four in five Americans felt the country was spiralling out of control. With this, Harris will be hoping voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, see her as a candidate of stability.

2. HARRIS’s STANCE ON ABORTION

This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to an abortion. However, voters, especially women, who are concerned about protecting abortion rights are backing Harris, as she is championing their rights. Taking hints from the 2022 midterms, it would be safe to say that the issue of abortion rights has the potential to drive an election result.

According to a report with BBC, this time, nearly 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Harris’s favour.

3. HER SPENDINGS ON ELECTION

The 2024 elections in the United States are believed to be the most expensive ever, for which, Kamala Harris has raised more since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times analysis.

This also highlights that Harris’s campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising.

4. MORE VOTES FROM THOSE SUPPORTING HER

The elder generation and the college-going lot, mostly supporting Harris, are more likely to vote in the US election. This comes in contrast with low-turnout groups backing Trump, such as young men and those without a college degree.

According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Donald Trump holds a huge lead among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020.

News world Trump, Harris Both Confident Of US Election Win. Here Are The X Factors They Are Banking On