US Elections 2024 | Race To 270 Electoral Votes: These Are The Key States That Trump And Harris Must Win

Last Updated:November 05, 2024, 14:22 IST

US Elections 2024: Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will need to win at least three swing states to get them over the 270 line

If Harris can win Pennsylvania plus one more from the Rust Belt, then Trump would need close to a clean sweep of all the other swing states. (AP photo)

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris scrambled to voters on the last day of campaigning across three key battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan on November 4. Both the candidates are in a close race to cross the 270 electoral votes threshold based on the recent polling.

As per the 538’s recent polling average, both the candidates are within the margin of error in the seven swing states. While Harris has a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump has small leads in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.

In this year’s election, the seven swing states, which both the candidates are vociferously campaigning in, are Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The first four states are clubbed as Sun Belt while the last three are categorized as Rust Belt.

In the US election, states with more people are worth more points. Thus, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina and Michigan offer 19, 16 (each) and 15 electoral votes, respectively. The swing states hold 93 votes between them.

Both candidates will need to win at least three swing states to get them over the 270 line.

Road To Rust Belt

The three swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have a long history of voting for the Democrats, who have taken all three states in seven of the last eight presidential elections. But in 2016, they flipped for Trump.

So, history suggests if one candidate will likely take all three states, then that person wins the election.

If Harris can win Pennsylvania plus one more from the Rust Belt, then Trump would need close to a clean sweep of all the other swing states.

Harris’ strength in these states lies with the black, minority and college-educated voters along with the middle-class voters in the suburbs. While Trump is hoping that he could tap into rural votes and youngsters who may have never voted for him before.

The Sun Belt Project

The states are referred to as Sun Belt for the obvious reason that they have a hotter climate than those in the north. These four Sun Belt states this election are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Harris could become president if she wins all the four states. However, it is unlikely since no Democrat has ever won the Sun Belt swing states since Harry Truman was elected in 1948.

If Trump swept all the swing states in the Sun Belt, he would still need to pick up one more state. But, unlike the Democrats, Republicans do have a history of sweeping these states.

In the Sun Belt, the Latino and Black voters will be the deciding factors. Georgia and North Carolina have a large percentage of eligible black voters while Arizona and Nevada have a fast-growing Latino population.

Trump held North Carolina in the last two elections and it wasn’t considered a swing state until Harris took over the Democratic ticket.

If Trump failed to clinch North Carolina, his path to the White House will become more challenging as he would need to win at least two of the Rust Belt states and two more in the Sun Belt.

The state has only voted for the Democratic candidate once since 1980 – for President Barack Obama in 2008.

What Do Polls And Early Trends Suggest?

If the polls reflect in the final day results, Trump would win Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, and win the election with 287 electoral votes, according to ABC News.

The former president’s lead in those states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, well within any major poll’s margin of error, according to 538 data.

As far as Harris is concerned, she could earn exactly 270 votes by winning one electoral vote in Nebraska, as well as all of the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, if she wins those states, the ABC News report added.

If polls are understating Trump’s lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 268 electoral votes. Winning Pennsylvania would put him over the 270-limit in that scenario, it added.

The AtlasIntel survey, conducted on November 1 and 2, included nearly 2,500 likely voters, predominantly female. In Arizona, Trump has a commanding lead with 51.9% against Harris’s 45.1%. In Nevada, Trump again leads with 51.4%, while Harris receives 45.9%. In North Carolina, Trump holds 50.4%, compared to Harris’s 46.8%. The significance of these swing states is highlighted by their history of close elections; for example, Joe Biden won Arizona by only 10,000 votes in 2020.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 29 presents a contrasting trend, showing Harris with a slight lead over Trump at 44% to 43%. Despite earlier leads, Harris’s support has diminished in recent weeks, raising concerns among her backers as Election Day approaches.

According to a poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris holds a slight advantage in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump is narrowly ahead in Arizona. This poll surveyed 7,879 likely voters across the seven swing states from October 24 to November 2. The results indicate that the candidates’ standings fall within a 3.5% margin of error, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the race.

Early voting trends show about 40% of respondents in the swing states have already voted, with Harris leading among early voters by an 8-point margin. However, Trump appears to be favoured among those who plan to vote on Election Day but have yet to cast their ballots, which could be pivotal in closely contested states.

In Pennsylvania, which is considered as the key swing state, Harris has previously led in The New York Times polls. But Trump has made significant gains. The state is now a toss-up, potentially impacting the overall results.

What Happened in November 4 Campaigning?

While Trump delivered dystopian speeches about the supposed ‘migrant invasion’ of drug dealers and murderers at four MAGA rallies, Harris wagered her last bets in Pennsylvania, where she visited the Latino areas.

Trump started in Raleigh in North Carolina, where he took a strong stand on immigration. In his 90-minute speech, he announced that if elected he would impose a new round of tariffs against Mexico unless it stopped the passage of undocumented migrants across the southern border. He also said he would impose tariffs on all Mexican goods coming into the US.

At Pittsburg and Reading in Pennsylvania, Trump implored the attendees to turn up on the election day and vote.

In contrast to Trump, Harris did tour only Pennsylvania, where he kicked off the campaign in Scranton – the birthplace of Joe Biden. Next, she appeared in Allentown, a Latino majority city, where she directly appealed to the Puerto Rican population and asked them for their vote.

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