US Presidential Elections 2024: Trump or Harris? Are Indian Americans Shifting Allegiance?

Last Updated:October 31, 2024, 14:09 IST

US Election 2024: A Carnegie Endowment Peace survey shows that Indian-Americans have historically favoured the Democratic Party. But there has been an incremental shift in the community’s voting behaviour in favor of the Republican Party this election

The 2024 Carnegie Endowment survey showed that 61% of registered Indian American voter respondents plan to vote for Kamala Harris while 32% intend to vote for Donald Trump. (Reuters File Photo)

Indian Americans form a sizeable part of the US population, that is, roughly 5.2 million people are of Indian origin in the States. They are the second-largest immigrant group in the US, and play an important role in the country’s politics.

Although Indian Americans have historically favoured the Democratic Party in overwhelming numbers, the Republican Party feels that their votes can be tapped into over the party’s stand on economy, social issues, and India-US bilateral relations.

What is the Mood of the India-American Community?

Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and Director of the South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for Peace, told ANI that Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan are important swing states where Indian Americans are large enough in numbers to be greater than the margin between the two Presidential nominees.

According to a survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment Peace in October 2024, which was a follow up to a survey done in 2020, 47% of respondents identify as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. The share of Republican identifiers has held steady while the percentage of independents has grown.

The 2024 survey also highlighted that 61% of registered Indian-American voter respondents plan to vote for Harris while 32% intend to vote for Trump. There has been a modest shift in the community’s preferences, with a greater share of respondents willing to vote for Trump since the last 2020 election.

The survey showed 67% women of Indian-American voter respondents intend to vote for Harris compared to 53% of men. Twenty-two percent of women intend to vote for Trump while 39% plan to cast their ballots for him.

The data suggest that the Indian-American community holds a dim view of the Republican Party. The party is out of sync with the multiple policy positions held by the members of the community.

The survey also stressed that abortion and reproductive rights are a “highly salient issue for Indian Americans this election year, ranking as their second-most-important policy concern", after inflation, economy and jobs.

Demographics of Indian Americans

There are approximately 5.2 million people of Indian origin residing in the US today, of which 3.9 million are 18 or older. Based on 2022 data, there are roughly 2.6 million eligible Indian-American voters today.

Between 2010 and 2020, the community has grown by 50%, making it the second-largest immigrant community by origin, after Mexican-Americans. Of those born outside the US, 70% entered the country after the 2000.

Over the years, the community has elevated its socio-economic status, making them an attractive target for the political parties. An average Indian-American household has an income of $153,000, more than double the figure for the country as a whole.

Harris vs Trump

After Harris received the Democratic presidential nomination in August, various Indian-American and South Asian American groups have been engaged in mobilising support for her, including through raising funds.

In the final New York Times/Siena College national poll from October 20 to 23, the two aspirants are tied at 48%. The remaining 4% are yet to decide on their preference.

A separate poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business showed that 44% of respondents trust Trump to handle the economy as opposed to 43% for Harris.

“When you ask Indian-American voters why they don’t associate themselves with the Democratic Party, why is that they choose not to identify with the party that it has long been the natural home for Indian-Americans for the last several election cycles, they say things like and they believe that the democratic party is too weak on illegal immigration, they are quite concerned about inflation, about prices, about job opportunities and a significant percentage of them believe that the Democrats and left has been too involved in identity politics. So, these are some of the things that we are seeing in the data, particularly amongst men," Vaishnav said.

The Carnegie Endowment survey also suggested that Asian Americans may be gradually shifting their loyalties from the Democratic Party towards the Republican Party. “Compared to other racial groups, Asian Americans tend to have weaker attachments to political parties, and recent elections have seen an incremental shift in this group’s voting behavior in favor of the Republican Party, a trend observed among other non-White voters as well," the survey showed.

The seven key swing states which are seen to be crucial to determining the election results are Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada.

News explainers US Presidential Elections 2024: Trump or Harris? Are Indian Americans Shifting Allegiance?