White women swing to Kamala Harris, Trump gains with Hispanic men: Polls

Republican Donald Trump has nearly erased Democrats' longstanding advantage among Hispanic men ahead of the November 5 presidential election when he will face Democrat Kamala Harris, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Former President Trump now trails Vice President Harris by just 2 percentage points among Hispanic men - 44% to 46% - compared with his 19 point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden at the same point in 2020, according to the analysis of more than 15,000 responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in the month through October 21 and during the same period of 2020.

Trump's gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favoured him over Biden by 12 points late in 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. The two candidates are locked in an exceptionally tight race, with Harris up only marginally - 46% to 43% - in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 16-21.

The shifts are part of larger changes in the coalitions that each candidate is counting on for victory, with Trump boosting his advantage with Hispanic and Black voters - particularly men - while Harris has cut away at the Republicans' longstanding edge with white voters by gaining ground with women.

Robert Alomia, a Hispanic voter in Elizabeth, New Jersey, who works at a security firm, said he respects Trump's career as a businessman and plans to vote for him this year after sitting out the 2020 election.

"We need people who think quick and people who are willing to lead - he’s a leader," said Alomia, 42, who said he was also sympathetic to Trump's hardline views on immigration. "You have these people that come into the country where they get everything, and basically the door is open for them."

Trump has accused the Biden administration of leaving the southern border open to migrants while Harris has pushed back against that by blaming Trump for pressuring Republicans in Congress to jettison a bipartisan border security bill that have would tightened border controls.

Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. electorate, have leaned heavily Democratic in most presidential elections since the 1970s but Trump has made significant inroads.

The analysis of recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump with support from 37% of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30% at the same point in 2020. Harris is at 51% compared to Biden's 54% four years earlier. The numbers are subject to sampling error, and have levels of precision of between 2 and 6 percentage points.

Trump ended up winning 38% of the Hispanic votes in 2020, 21 points below Biden but still the biggest share for a Republican candidate since President George W. Bush won 44% in 2004, according to a 2020 exit poll analysis by the Pew Research Center and historical figures compiled by the American Enterprise Institute.

SHIFT AMONG BLACK MEN

The Republican is also on track to whittle away at the edges of Democrats' strength in the Black electorate. Some 18% of Black men picked him in recent Reuters/Ipsos polls - up from 14% four years earlier - as did 8% of Black women, up from 4%. Exit polls after the 2020 election showed that about 8% of Black voters overall picked Trump in 2020, while the recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows him at 12%.

Republican campaign strategist Kristin Davison said Trump is wooing Black voters by convincing them that the Democratic Party is too extreme on social issues.

"That's what Trump has been able to do with Black men and with Hispanics in the last four years, not just on the issues of the economy and hard work, but with country and family," she said.

America's history of racial tension and injustice looms large in the minds of Trump's supporters and detractors alike. Trump famously asked Black voters during his 2016 presidential campaign, "What the hell do you have to lose?"

"A lot of people might play the race card. They might say he's racist, they might say he's using Black people. They might say a lot of stuff. But for me, personally, I feel like he proved that he wants to see everybody win," said Kedrick Benford, a Black voter in Houston who didn't vote in 2020 but said he thinks he'll vote for Trump this time.

Benford, 30, a self-employed retailer, said he considered Trump more experienced than Harris.

Harris has kept the race close in part by winning over white women, who made up about four in 10 voters in 2020, double the combined share of Black and Hispanic voters.

While the two candidates' shares of support from white men is largely unchanged, Harris' boost among white women means Trump is only leading by nine points with white voters overall, compared to when he led Biden by 14 points with them in 2020.

Davison, the Republican strategist, said many women have turned to Harris in part because Democrats have effectively focused them on abortion following the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling by ending the nationwide right to abortion.

Women are also evaluating "the stark contrast in leadership and character between the vice president and Trump, which is influencing their choices," said Meghan Hays, a Democratic strategist and former senior communications aide to President Biden.

"The vice president must widen her lead among women voters to offset Trump’s advantage with Black and Latino men," Hays added. "This election will be won by the smallest of margins."

Donna Berg, a white woman in St. Charles, Illinois, voted for Trump in 2016 and again "reluctantly" in 2020, but Berg decisively dumped Trump following the January 6, 2021, US Capitol attack.

"After January 6, it was all over," Berg said. She said the Republican Party has veered into extremism under Trump's leadership and she would vote for Harris this year. "I am not necessarily voting for her as much as I’m voting against Trump."