Modi in Kyiv: A high-stakes visit as Ukraine pushes for peace

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Kyiv couldn't have come at a more critical time. Ukraine has lost 18 per cent of its territory to Russia, and now it's trying to turn the tide of war with a bold strike in Russia's Kursk region. So, what's the situation on the ground, and what might come out of his tour?

Just a month ago, Ukraine wasn’t too happy with PM Modi. They criticised him for meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on the same day a Russian strike hit a children's hospital in Kyiv, killing dozens. Against this backdrop, Modi’s visit is loaded with expectations as stakeholders wonder if it could give birth to some kind of breakthrough.

WHERE DO THINGS STAND IN WAR?

Let’s dive into the war itself. Ukraine, feeling the strain of prolonged conflict, launched a major offensive into Russia in early August — the first such attack seen since World War II. It surprised many, especially since Ukrainian forces are stretched thin, struggling to hold the front lines.

Since August 6, Ukrainian troops have managed to take control of over 1,200 square kilometers of Russian territory near the border town of Sudzha. Russian war bloggers pointed to Ukraine’s clever use of speed and tactics, like small groups of armoured vehicles and FPV drones, to explain their success. These tactics allowed the Ukrainians to outmaneuver Russian outposts and take control of crucial roads, they claimed.

In the first days of the attack, Ukraine inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces, including a strike on a reinforcement convoy that reportedly destroyed 14 military trucks and killed nearly 100 soldiers. As of August 21, battles continue around Kursk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says this incursion is about "putting pressure" on Russian forces, delivering "justice," and creating a buffer zone to protect the Sumy region, which borders Kursk. Meanwhile, President Putin claims the attack is Kyiv’s attempt to gain leverage in potential peace negotiations.

So, can Ukraine’s bold move pay off in the long run? That’s the big question. Retired Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma thinks Ukraine might be able to use this to its advantage in future peace talks—but only if they can hold onto the territory they’ve taken in Kursk and fend off Russian advances in Donetsk.

PM Modi was on a two-day trip to Russia beginning July 8.

"I don't see them pushing deeper into Russia. Historically, anyone who's tried to invade Russia in the winter months has had a rough time. Ukrainians need to solidify their position and not get too ambitious," Sharma tells India Today.

The war has been brutal — an estimated 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives, and many more have been wounded. After a failed counter-offensive in 2023, Ukraine is struggling to draft civilians into its military.

As for when this war might end? No one really knows, but most agree that any serious move toward peace probably won’t happen until after the US elections.

CAN MODI MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

Prime Minister Modi's visit is widely seen as a balancing act. India has taken a neutral stance on the conflict, repeatedly calling for an end to the war through dialogue and diplomacy.

“This visit will carry forward the same message. However, I’m doubtful it will have any effect because neither Russia nor Ukraine has indicated to soften their maximalist positions,” says Skand Ranjan Tayal, former Indian ambassador to Russia.

Tayal, who also served in Ukraine's neighbour Poland, thinks Modi will likely reassure Zelenskyy that India hasn’t taken his previous criticism to heart. "He is likely to convey the message that India is ready to walk the path of friendship and cooperation with the people of Ukraine," he tells India Today.

Beyond offering more humanitarian aid, India might also sign agreements with Ukraine in the defence and economic sectors during this visit.

Mridula Ghosh, an Indian-origin professor of international relations at Kyiv University, believes India should explore cooperation in affordable drone technology — something that’s changed the dynamics on the battlefield in a big way.