Satara Lok Sabha Election 2024: Can Loyalty to Sharad Pawar Decide Winner in This Maharashtra Constituency?

Satara Lok Sabha constituency, situated within Maharashtra, is designated as a General category parliamentary seat. It encompasses a portion of Satara district and comprises six legislative assembly segments — Wai, Koregaon, Karad North, Karad South, Patan, and Satara. The current MP is Shriniwas Dadasaheb Patil of the NCP since a bypoll in 2019, preceded by Srimant Udayanraje Bhonsle (2009-2019 as NCP leader). The candidates in the fray for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are Bhonsle (BJP) and Shashikant Shinde (NCP-SP). The constituency will vote in the third phase on May 7 and results will be declared on June 4.

Political Dynamics

Two-Way Contest: The Lok Sabha elections in Satara are poised for a fierce battle between the BJP and the NCP. Udayanraje Bhosale represents the BJP, while Shashikant Shinde is the candidate from the NCP (Sharad Pawar). This seat of Satara, known for its loyalty to Sharad Pawar, has been a bastion of the NCP since 1999, with the party winning the seat seven times.BJP’s royal face in NCP Citadel: The BJP has been trying for years to breach this NCP citadel which has persistently withstood the Modi wave as seen in 2014 and 2019. This time, the party has pitted a former NCP leader and three-time MP from Satara against its NCP opponent. It has nominated Rajya Sabha MP Udayanraje Bhosale, who holds the distinction of being the 13th direct descendant of the renowned Maratha warrior king, Chhatrapati Shivaji. Bhosale is a former NCP leader, and led the constituency between 2009 and 2019 as an NCP leader. In 2019, he won the seat of Satara by over 1.26 lakh votes. However, he resigned from the party soon after, joined the BJP and was voted out in the bypolls that followed, which came as a shock to both him and the BJP. Bhosale lost to the NCP’s Shriniwas Dadasaheb Patil by a margin of around 87,000 votes. After this loss, the BJP placed him in the Rajya Sabha.Political Chaos: Satara’s electoral battle, scheduled for May 7 during the third phase of polling, was anticipated to witness the NCP, led by Ajit Pawar, contesting as part of the Mahayuti alliance. However, the party encountered difficulty in securing a strong contender. Earlier, Bhosale declined to run on the NCP ticket under Ajit Pawar’s leadership. Instead, he approached BJP officials, proposing to trade the Satara seat for another constituency and to contest as the BJP’s candidate. Party leaders assured Bhosale that his request would be honoured, and he set out to campaign accordingly. Recently, Bhosale levelled a grave accusation suggesting that the Congress has a history of making people disappear. During a press conference held in Satara, Udayanraje strongly criticised the Congress, casting doubts on the accidental deaths of prominent Congress leaders such as Rajesh Pilot, Madhavrao Scindia, and YSR Reddy. Bhosale hopes that he can overcome the challenges he faces since quitting the NCP, which was a decision that led to his loss months after winning the seat in 2019, hinting at public disapproval. The lingering perception now is that Bhosale’s decision backfired and that Satara’s loyalty to Sharad Pawar is stronger than the three-time MP’s popularity in the seat.Challenge for NCP-Sena: It is also a crucial election for the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena who have one MLA each here, as the outcome in the Lok Sabha election will influence the future of the Mahayuti alliance in the assembly polls later this year. Bolstered by the Mahayuti alliance, including leaders like Devendra Fadnavis, who is appreciated for his development-oriented approach, Bhosale is giving the NCP(SP) a tough fight.Hindutva Card: Hindutva is not a dominant issue here but it is an emerging issue, especially in light of the 2023 Satara riots, where tensions between the Hindu and Muslim communities led to violent clashes. This may play a role in the polarisation of Hindu votes. The Modi factor is prevalent owing to the development push of the BJP and the BJP-led state government. What favours the BJP candidate here is the perception that the BJP has delivered on the development front and with its welfare schemes including free ration, Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat and so on. The government’s decision to sign off on a 10 per cent quota for the Maratha community is also a plus point.NCP Under Pressure: The fight for Satara has become a matter of prestige for the Sharad Pawar-led NCP which has been hit by a split in the party orchestrated by his very own nephew Ajit Pawar. After sitting MP Shrinivas Patil, an 83-year-old ex-IAS officer and ex-Governor of Sikkim, withdrew from the fray citing health reasons, it was rumoured that Sharad Pawar himself would enter the contest, but he decided against it. Instead the party named Shashikant Shinde as its nominee. Shashikant Shinde, 60, is a former MLA from Koregaon in Satara and served as the minister of water resources for Krishna Valley Irrigation Corporation of Maharashtra between 2013 and 21014. He has been a legislative council member and is said to be a close aide of Sharad Pawar whom he stood with after the split in the NCP. Shinde is riding the wave of support for 83-year-old veteran leader Sharad Pawar, who yields tremendous sway in Satara. Pawar is known for making major party announcements from the seat and the people here are attached to him and his long legacy, which is why this NCP bastion is a tough one to conquer for the BJP. Pawar’s strength has been his focus on local issues in every election, raising issues of the common man, including farmers, the poor and the unemployed. His speeches while standing in the rain have earned applause from people across the political spectrum.Party Math: With sizeable support for Pawar across communities and the 4 per cent Muslim vote bloc which lean towards the party and is expected to report a high voting turnout, the NCP is expecting to retain Satara, even as it faces a formidable challenge from the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan, who is an MLA from the Karad South assembly seat, is a powerful face of the Congress, campaigning for the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Chavan was asked to contest from the seat when the NCP was in search of a strong candidate who would be a “sure-shot winner”. However, Chavan stated that he would agree only if he were to be fielded on a Congress ticket. Chavan secured victory in the Lok Sabha elections for three consecutive terms from the former Karad Lok Sabha constituency in 1991, 1996, and 1998. Prior to his candidacy, Karad had been the traditional constituency of his family, represented by his mother Premala Chavan and father Dajisaheb Chavan for several decades. However, in 1999, he faced defeat against Shrinivas Patil, an incumbent MP at the time, who was contesting on behalf of the newly established NCP party. For the NCP to retain Satara with a comfortable margin, the Congress’s heft is needed during the campaign. However, Chavan’s demand was not acceptable to the NCP, and it remains to be seen how strongly the Congress participates in the last leg of the campaign.

Key Issues

Water Scarcity: Scarcity of water is one of the biggest issues in Satara. This year, Section 144 was imposed in Satara as the region faces drought. The district administrations on May 22 issued prohibitory orders along canals to stop water theft and to avoid transporting cattle fodder outside the areas amid severe water scarcity. Due to less rainfall last monsoon, dams and other reservoirs were not filled up to their maximum capacity. Now, nearly seven months since the season, most lakes and ponds in the districts have dried up. This is a yearly occurrence in Satara. Last year, around 50 villages and 170 hamlets in Satara district faced an acute shortage of water for drinking and irrigation purposes. There is frustration with the failure of the government’s implementation of the Jal Jeevan scheme.Water Contamination: Due to lack of drinking water available in the summers, people often consume contaminated water. This leads to frequent sickness and hazardous health conditions. While there is supporting healthcare infrastructure in the city, the rural areas lag behind and people from across the constituency throng the city for their healthcare needs adding immense pressure on the city resources.Lack of development: People have been left frustrated in Satara due to a lack of infrastructure development and failure of the government to provide better civic amenities. Although there are 13 industrial estates, two special economic zones (SEZ), 27 international industries, 68 large industries, and 27,508 small industries, people are not content with the overall development of the region. They believe that despite the presence of so many industries the overall region has not seen a rise in terms of living conditions. People have voiced their concerns for the same and have demanded holistic growth.Neglect towards Tourism: Satara is a tourism, religious and agricultural district. People feel that the neglect of the administration in improving tourist amenities has restricted Satara from reaching its tourism potential and improving the local economy. To address the issue, works worth more than Rs 1,000 crore are currently underway in Satara. Efforts are being made to encourage more tourism and attract tourists, including in Mahabaleshwar and Pachagani.Communal Tensions: Last year in September, Satara saw communal tensions boiling over in Pusesavali village as one person was killed and many injured. The tension stemmed from objectionable social media posts which agitated the Hindu community and a mob of 150 people attacked the local Mosque. They set ablaze some two-wheelers and cars, damaged public property and assaulted some people. This is in line with the rise of communal violence in Maharashtra. Over the last nine months, there have been at least 41 incidents of a communal nature that culminated in violence and tensions.Unemployment and Emigration: Despite the presence of industries and SEZs, a large chunk of the population remains unemployed. There is a strong discontent among the locals as people regularly migrate towards urban centres such as Mumbai and Pune in search for better opportunities. According to reports, there is also an undercurrent in the public over the lack of government jobs in the region.Agricultural Issues: The issue of less rainfall leads to drying up of seasonal rivers and low water levels in major rivers. This impacts farmers as they are unable to irrigate their lands. Irrigation is majorly restricted by lifting water from the fields and conditions of drought, like the one in Satara, emerge, leading to crop failures and crop loss. This leads to crushing debt for the farmers who are unable to pay off their loans taken up for cultivation. Compensation by the government is often late and sometimes not enough to pay off the loans. Farmers in Mahabaleshwar, Jaoli, Patan, Satara, Khandala and Man tahsils have low agricultural development and are the most affected. Farmers have also demanded higher MSP prices to offset seasonal losses incurred due to crop failure.Maratha Agitation: The complex issue of caste-based reservations continues to be a major point of contention in Maharashtra, particularly within the Marathwada region and extending its influence to Satara. Government efforts to address community concerns through a quota system have fallen short of expectations, as calls for broader recognition and inclusion from the OBC’s persist. The ruling party’s perceived sluggishness in response has further intensified discontent among the electorate. The ramifications of this issue are expected to significantly impact the outcomes of the upcoming elections.

Infrastructure Development

Industries: Thirteen industrial estates, two special economic zones (SEZ), 27 international industries, 68 large industries, and 27,508 small industries, have been set up in the region over the last 15-20 years which has developed Satara into a prominent industrial zone. Satara has manufacturing plants ranging from medicine to wine, electrical to diesel engine. It has provided employment to lakhs of people.Tourism: Works worth more than Rs 1,000 crore are currently underway in Satara. Efforts are being made to encourage more tourism and attract tourists, including in Mahabaleshwar and Pachagani. The number of forts in Satara is also large. For the reconstruction and development of Fort Pratapgarh, a provision of Rs 12 crore was made. It has now been increased to Rs 100 crore.Satara Mega Food Park: A food-processing cluster is being developed at Satara at a cost of Rs 139 crore which will provide much-needed storage and processing plants for the farm produce in Satara.Important Road Projects: There is six-laning of the Pune-Satara Highway-4 at a cost of Rs 1,725 crore; a new Highway has been proposed from Satara to Pandharpur, connecting Murvad and Pilov; another Highway will connect Satara with Latur.Railway Infrastructure: A significant investment of Rs 125 crore has been allocated for doubling the Pune-Satara railway line. Many road over/under bridges have been constructed, while passenger comfort is being improved with upgraded amenities at stations such as installation of water fountains and improved LED lighting. Furthermore, several stations in the region, including Satara, are slated for redevelopment under the Amrit Bharat Yojana, indicating a comprehensive effort to modernize the railway infrastructure and provide a better travel experience for passengers.

Voter Demographics (2011 Census)

Total Voters (2019): 1854077

Urban Voters: 21.6%

Rural Voters: 78.4%

Social Composition:

SC: 10.1%

ST: 1.1%

Religious Composition:

Hindu: 90%

Muslim: 5%

Buddhist: 4.7%

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.