1 month ago
Can the BJP bounce back in Ayodhya by winning the upcoming Milkipur assembly bypolls?
The saffron party, after losing the Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat, is leaving no stone unturned in the Dalit-dominated assembly seat to avenge its defeat, even as Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Chandrashekhar Azad’s outfit eye victory in the crucial bypolls that have been termed a prestige battle for BJP.
In the Milkipur assembly seat, which falls in Ayodhya on the borders of Amethi and Sultanpur, a bypoll is due after its MLA Awadhesh Prasad was elected as MP from Faizabad (Ayodhya) in the Lok Sabha, leaving the seat vacant. Though the Election Commission of India (ECI) is yet to announce the bypoll date, the pre-poll activities are on in full swing.
“Bhaiya, Maharaj-ji ki Izzat Ka Sawaal hai (It’s a matter of prestige for UP CM Yogi Adityanath). It’s not any regular bypoll,” said a BJP worker while preparing for Adityanath’s visit scheduled for next week.
This will be the chief minister’s second visit in a fortnight to Ayodhya ahead of bypolls. Adityanath had also visited Ayodhya on August 7 and set the ball rolling for the campaign.
“The chief minister also met party workers and asked them to stay connected with the public and communicate the government’s development efforts. He highlighted that these schemes benefit all sections of society. Besides, he also encouraged workers to counter opposition attempts to mislead people and stressed the need for officials to remain active,” a BJP worker said.
What happened in the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls?
The BJP faced a surprising defeat in the Faizabad constituency, which includes the temple town of Ayodhya, just months after the party fulfilled its long-standing promise of building a Ram Temple at the deity’s believed birthplace.
Samajwadi Party’s Awadhesh Prasad won the seat, defeating the sitting BJP MP Lallu Singh by over 54,567 votes. Prasad secured 5,54,289 votes, while Singh trailed with 4,99,722 votes. The Faizabad seat, one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in UP, is significant as it encompasses Ayodhya, the site of the Ram Temple. The loss marked a setback for the BJP, which has historically banked on Ayodhya’s religious significance.
What led to BJP’s dismal performance in Ayodhya?
Balram Tiwari, political observer and senior journalist from Faizabad, said BJP not only lost Ayodhya in 2024 but also failed to capitalise on the Ram Temple inauguration. “Instead, unemployment and rising prices dominated voters’ concerns. Lallu Singh, the BJP candidate, inadvertently supported opposition claims that the BJP might alter the Constitution if re-elected.
“The Samajwadi Party’s decision to field Awadhesh Prasad, a nine-time Dalit MLA from Milkipur and Sohawal, proved strategic, securing crucial Dalit votes. The Dalit community is the largest voting bloc in Milkipur, adding to the SP alliance’s assured Muslim-Yadav support. Additionally, the BSP’s decision to field Brahmin candidate Sachidanand Pandey further complicated the BJP’s chances, as Pandey garnered over 46,000 votes, eating into the BJP’s vote share. These factors collectively contributed to the BJP’s unexpected loss, highlighting the complex dynamics at play in the region.”
Will BJP regain foothold in Ayodhya?
UP’s political observers acknowledge that while BJP’s ‘Mission Milkipur’ holds promise, it also faces considerable challenges.
Tiwari said public perception in Ayodhya has shifted significantly in the last four months. Also, the decision by Adityanath to lead the Milkipur bypoll battle has energised party workers and the alleged resentment they had against the party’s decision to field Lallu Singh has subsided.
Tiwari said there are rumours that BJP may field former Milkipur MLA Baba Gorakhnath, a Pasi, who narrowly lost to SP’s Awadhesh Prasad in 2022 by just over 13,000 votes. Notably, in 2017, Gorakhnath, then 32, defeated the 72-year-old Prasad by more than 26,000 votes, a victory that coincided with the BJP’s landslide win in Uttar Pradesh and Yogi Adityanath’s rise to the chief minister’s office.
Challenges
To counter the BJP, the Samajwadi Party has made the Milkipur battle a prestige issue and is considering fielding Awadhesh Prasad’s son Ajit, a Pasi, turning the contest into a ‘Pasi vs Pasi’ battle. This time, the BSP has also decided to contest the bypolls, while Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (ASP) will field a candidate, intensifying the competition.
BSP and ASP — Possible Spoilsport
Tiwari pointed out that the BSP and ASP’s activities in Milkipur, which has a significant Dalit and OBC population, could make the poll battle all the more critical for both BJP and SP.
Azad has appointed in-charges in key assembly seats and is expanding his party’s influence after winning the Nagina Lok Sabha seat. The shift of Dalit voters towards ASP has also worried the BSP, prompting its chief to announce that the party will contest all vacant assembly seats, including Milkipur. This sets the stage for a fierce electoral battle.
The BJP has already hit the ground running by asking its Ayodhya unit to restructure the booth-level committees and augment the Panna samitis. Adityanath has constituted a team of four UP ministers —Surya Pratap Shahi, Mayankeshwar Singh, Girish Yadav and Satish Sharma — to intensify poll spadework in Ayodhya, while he has been holding deliberations with seers to get ground-level feedback from the religious community which plays a pivotal role in catalysing voters.
Besides Milkipur, eight other seats had fallen vacant when their MLAs — including SP chief Akhilesh Yadav — were elected to the Lok Sabha. The remaining Sisamau (Kanpur) seat became vacant after SP MLA Irfan Solanki was convicted and sentenced to seven years’ imprisonment, bringing the total number of vacant assembly seats to 10.
