Australia election 2025 live: Dutton claims to see ‘turning of the mood’ in his favour and again accuses media of bias

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‘Final result could be closer than this poll suggests’: Roy Morgan

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labor ahead on 53% (up 0.9% from the 2022 federal election) ahead of the Coalition on 47% (down 0.9%) on a two-party-preferred basis.

This would be enough to return Anthony Albanese to government with an increased majority but nevertheless shows a swing of 2.5% to the Coalition compared with a week ago.

The move is the result of early voting showing a bias towards the Coalition, Roy Morgan said.

Around 2.4 million Australians voted last week (representing over 13% of the total enrolment) and an analysis of early voters shows the Coalition performing better among those who had already voted. These trends suggest the final result could be closer than this poll suggests as we approach election day and we could still be facing a potential minority government if the ALP fail to gain a majority.

Despite the large two-party preferred swing, the primary support for the major parties was little changed on a week ago with the Coalition on 34.5% (up 0.5%) now just ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 0.5%).

While Labor’s costings are warm off the press, released yesterday afternoon, the Coalition are still waiting to put out their numbers on how they’ll pay for all of their promises.

A lot of Labor’s election commitments had already been included in their March budget, and mid year budget update back in December, and they said they’ll find $6.4bn over the forward estimates to pay for the rest of their promises through cutting consultants and contractors in the public service.

But the Coalition still has to cost all their commitments, including their nuclear plants, and backing the government’s $8.5bn spend to increase bulkbilling.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor tells Sunrise those numbers will come “in the next couple of days”.

You will see them in the next couple of days… and the sneak preview is you will see a stronger budget position from Labor’s costings yesterday.

Of course there are only four days left of the campaign, and the AEC expects around half of voters to put in their ballots before 3 May.

Asked whether the Coalition can afford the nuclear plant when ratings agencies are warning against excessive spending, Taylor says “we can absolutely afford it”.

They say politics makes strange bedfellows, but some can be a bit stranger than others, as we saw last night on Q&A.

Greens leader Adam Bandt revealed he got a call from former Liberal PM Tony Abbott back in 2010, during the hung parliament.

He rang me. He said, “Hi, Adam, it’s Tony Abbott here. I’ve always considered myself a bit of an environmentalist. I think we should talk.”

A very short conversation. A very short conversation and Peter Dutton would get the same response this time.

Julia Gillard ended up securing the support of the crossbench to form a minority government.

There’s a good chance that we could see another hung parliament in this election.

Albanese has been adamant that “no deal” will be made with the Greens, but Bandt said he’d be “astounded” if conversations weren’t had between the major parties and the whole crossbench.

Everyone says they’re not going to talk but I would be astounded if they refused to respect the parliament that the Australian people select. The flipside of that is that we’ve all got to give a bit.

Gallagher says Dutton’s welcome to country comments an attempt to distract from ‘train wreck’ campaign

Peter Dutton’s comments that welcome to country ceremonies are “overdone” has continued to shape political debate today.

Gallagher is asked whether a Labor government would continue to deliver support for welcome to country ceremonies.

Gallagher says that the ceremonies are a matter of “respect” and accuses Dutton of trying to “distract” from his campaign.

The government has a position that this is a measure of respect to support welcome to country … I think the issue that Peter Dutton has raised in the last couple of days is to distract away from the train wreck of a campaign they’re having.

Pushed on whether the government will continue to support the ceremonies financially, Gallagher says:

We haven’t made any changes to the way that we would be operating in the first term to how we would operate in the second term.

Opposition’s ‘Americanisation’ has been a factor in election campaign, Gallagher says

The finance minister, Katy Gallagher, is doing the media rounds for Labor this morning, starting on ABC News Breakfast.

While the Canadians head to the polls for an election that has been strongly coloured by Donald Trump, Gallagher is asked how much impact the Trump factor is having over here.

Gallagher says people are “pretty switched on to” the issues of the US, but what’s happening in Canada won’t necessarily happen here.

I think the contest here – and people are pretty switched on to it – is between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton and I think there’s certainly a feeling around the need for stability in these uncertain times …

I think when it comes to the Trump influence or the American influence, I think certainly in policies where we’ve seen, particularly from the opposition, the Americanisation of, say, Medicare or working from home, those types of things have definitely been a factor in this campaign.

Good morning,

Krishani Dhanji here with you, with just four days left of this election campaign.

The PM is in Queensland this morning where Labor is hopeful of gaining some territory, while Peter Dutton is starting the day in Sydney, after campaigning in the ultra marginal seat of Bennelong last night.

The countdown is on, the people are voting, the leaders’ planes and buses are traversing across the country, and we are here to bring it all to you.

Rightwing minor party boost could give Dutton 'narrow path' to PM

The polls aren’t all bad news for Peter Dutton – with at least one pollster thinking he still has a narrow path to minority government thanks to voters backing smaller parties.

Scott Morrison’s former media chief turned consultant Andrew Carswell said a path to victory was still possible for the Coalition.

“The path is narrow, though it’s narrowing by the day, but I think the best most can do is ignore the established polls out there at the moment, because what we’ll see on Saturday will be out of step,” he told Associated Australian Press.

“While Labor is very much the short odds to be in minority government, it will be closer than people think.”

Despite Carswell saying a majority government is “awfully difficult” for the Coalition to achieve, a rise in support for rightwing minor parties could flow back to the opposition.

“The preferences that come from One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots and other centre-right minor parties to the Coalition is dramatically higher than in 2022,” he said.

“One Nation is a party of protest, they preference away, generally speaking, from incumbent governments, and that will bring in to play some seats that will be a surprise for people on election night.”

The latest YouGov poll showed One Nation had a 10.5% primary vote, while Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots stood at 2%.

The result for Pauline Hanson’s party is more than double the result it got at the 2022 poll, when it had just under 5% of the primary vote.

In many electorates, Coalition how-to-vote cards have urged supporters to put One Nation second on their ballot.

Carswell said Victoria was still looking strong for the Coalition, particularly in outer-suburban seats where cost-of-living pressures were hitting hardest.

“The further from the CBD, the better – there is the chance of some surprises on election night in outer suburban seats,” he said.

I've done nothing wrong, says Bennelong candidate Scott Yung

Embattled Liberal candidate Scott Yung maintains he has done nothing wrong in terms of past questions about disclosing campaign donations or the use of social media influencers, saying he had always acted “in accordance with the law”.

The Bennelong challenger also said it was “a joke” that he had been criticised for handing out Easter eggs to children as part of his campaign.

Liberal leader Peter Dutton visited Bennelong, one of the most marginal Labor seats in the country, for the first time in the election campaign on Monday night. In a low-key campaign stop at a local club, Dutton addressed a small group of supporters of Yung’s campaign, shaking hands with people clad in Liberal T-shirts and backing the candidate.

As Guardian Australia and other outlets have reported, questions have swirled over Yung’s candidacy, including over disclosures made during his 2019 tilt for a state government seat, and the use of influencers to endorse his candidacy.

Yung and the Liberal party have maintained he had done nothing wrong, and that he had made appropriate disclosures.

On Monday, media travelling with Dutton managed to ask Yung several questions at the sports club. He said “everything’s done in accordance with the law”.

“I checked the records,” he said.

Dutton’s staff, who had remained at the event after the leader had left, attempted several times to wind up the impromptu appearance by asking reporters to return to the campaign bus.

Asked about his decision to hand out chocolate eggs outside a school during a campaign stop, Yung defended it as “in the spirit of Easter”.

“Can I just say, what a joke that I got slammed for that. I think it’s in the spirit of Easter. I asked parents if I could give an Easter egg to their children,” he said.

Asked by Guardian Australia about social media influencers, Yung said: “Let me just make this very very clear again, we have not paid any social media influencers in 2019.” Asked if he had paid influencers in 2025, Yung said “no”.

Read more here:

More from Josh on that Dutton interview on Sky last night:

In recent weeks Dutton has faced vigorous questioning on his nuclear and gas policies, plans to slash the public service, and his economic credentials. Dutton has sowed confusion by declining to give details about his public service plan or mooted cuts to migration, and gave public apologies for a ditched Coalition policy to wind back working from home for public servants, as well as over incorrect comments about Russia’s interactions with Indonesia over military issues.

On Sky, Dutton also again accused Labor and Albanese of “lying”, “scare campaigns”, and “completely baseless” claims.

“I think there is a turning of the mood,” Dutton claimed of his feeling about the voting public.

“There’s a big disparity in what we’re seeing, the track polling in marginal seats ... There’s a lot of anger against the government, particularly in outer metro and regional areas, and I don’t think that’s been picked up in the national polls.”

'Activists, not journalists': Dutton doubles down on criticisms of 'hate media'

Peter Dutton has doubled down on his criticisms of the journalists covering his election campaign, calling the media “activists” and “so biased” after numerous stumbles and slip-ups at press conferences in the last month.

In an interview on Sky News last night, Dutton claimed internal Liberal track polling was “much more positive” for his election prospects than published opinion polling, which uniformly shows Labor in an election-winning position with around a 52-48 two-party lead.

A day after Dutton referred to the ABC and Guardian Australia as “hate media”, he again criticised the journalists following his campaign. Several Liberal colleagues including James Paterson and Jane Hume claimed yesterday Dutton was joking or making a “tongue in cheek” comment with his criticisms of media, but on Sky, the Liberal leader did not repeat that defence himself, nor back away from his previous comments.

Referring to the “hate media” comment, Sky host Sharri Markson asked, “Do you think that sort of media and others like them actually hate mainstream Australian values?”

Dutton said in response that some media were “so biased” and “many of them are just activists, not journalists”.

“They’re playing to a particular audience, a Green voter,” Dutton claimed.

“I think the leftwing media, by polling day, will be counter-productive in what they’re doing.”

Welcome

Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best of the overnight stories and then it’ll be Krishani Dhanji to guide you through the day.

With the final few days of campaigning to go, our latest Essential poll shows Labor still holds an election-winning lead by 52-48 points over the Coalition on a two-party basis. The survey also reveals Peter Dutton’s personal approval rating has slipped for the fourth poll in a row. More details coming up, plus what the latest Roy Morgan poll shows, and one pollster – a former adviser to Scott Morrison – who sees hope for Dutton. We’ll be on their trail again, with Anthony Albanese campaigning in Brisbane today, while Dutton will be starting the day in Sydney.

But the opposition leader remains defiant. In a Sky News interview last night, Dutton renewed his criticisms of the journalists covering his election campaign, describing reporters as “activists” and “so biased” in coverage of his numerous stumbles and slip-ups at press conferences in the last month. We have more details, including the Coalition leader reiterating one of his favourite talking points: that those polls showing him trailing Albanese are wrong.

Plus: Liberal candidate for Bennelong, Scott Yung, insisted last night he has done nothing wrong in terms of past questions about disclosing campaign donations or the use of social media influencers, saying he had always acted “in accordance with the law”. More coming up.