BJP Has 5-Point Bihar Game Plan But Won't Relax As RJD May Copy SP Playbook: Top Party Sources

Last Updated:June 12, 2025, 07:30 IST

The BJP sources said the NDA has much in its favour in Bihar and expects to win the state this October under Nitish Kumar’s leadership

A BJP source said seat distribution in Bihar would be smooth, despite the ambitions of regional players like the JD(U) and Chirag’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). (File pic/PTI)

No anti-incumbency, a favourable caste combination, a positive atmosphere due to Operation Sindoor, the caste census card, and sympathy for Nitish Kumar—this is the BJP’s game plan for the crucial Bihar election battle later this year.

However, the party is ensuring no complacency or overconfidence in what is expected to be a tough caste clash, top BJP sources told CNN-News18.

They said the NDA has much in its favour in Bihar and expects to win the state this October under Nitish Kumar’s leadership.

But the party remains cautious and is avoiding overconfidence, aware that Bihar is a “caste battle" and the RJD is aggressively courting caste groups beyond its Yadav-Muslim base, one of these top BJP sources said.

“There is certainly no anti-incumbency. People appreciate the development they have seen in Bihar under the NDA government," the source said.

RJD learning from SP’s success

The top BJP source added that the BJP recognises that the Rashtriya Janata Dal is attempting to replicate Akhilesh Yadav’s 2024 Lok Sabha election strategy by giving many tickets to candidates outside the Yadav-Muslim demographic in the upcoming assembly polls.

The Samajwadi Party had bruised the BJP in Uttar Pradesh last year by allocating numerous tickets to non-Yadav OBCs and winning 37 Lok Sabha seats, its best-ever performance.

A second BJP source said the Democratic Alliance has a stronger caste combination than the opposition. The recent caste census announcement is also expected to benefit the NDA. “Much is said about Nitish Kumar’s health by the opposition, but he will likely receive considerable sympathy votes in these Bihar polls," this source said.

Operation Sindoor impact

Bihar will also be the first state to hold elections after Operation Sindoor, and the Bharatiya Janata Party has ground feedback suggesting a positive resonance in this Hindi-belt state, where anti-Pakistan sentiment is strong.

The Prime Minister has already held two rallies in Bihar since April, addressing the action against Pakistan. Narendra Modi will be in Siwan, an RJD stronghold, on June 20.

Congress prospects dim, Chirag burns bright

The BJP is banking on the RJD again allocating a substantial number of seats to the Congress.

In the last assembly elections, while the RJD had a reasonable strike rate, winning 75 of the 144 seats it contested, the Congress secured only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. The Janata Dal (United) won just 43 seats, as Chirag Paswan’s party significantly dented it by contesting independently.

A top BJP source noted a significant change: Chirag is now with the NDA and demonstrated a good strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning five seats.

Chirag recently stated that he would contest the assembly polls from a general seat and is vying for a deputy CM position. “He has a good vote base in the Patna-Hajipur region and has his own ambitions," the BJP source added.

The second BJP source said seat distribution in Bihar would be smooth, despite the ambitions of regional players like the JD(U) and Chirag’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

“Our leader so far is Nitish Kumar," the source said.

He added that even the RJD knows the Congress will likely underperform in the opposition camp if given a considerable number of seats, as demonstrated in previous Hindi heartland elections.

News elections BJP Has 5-Point Bihar Game Plan But Won't Relax As RJD May Copy SP Playbook: Top Party Sources