1 hour ago
Gold hit 50+ record highs in 2025, up 60%. The World Gold Council sees gains or declines ahead, with India and central banks as key influences.
By Anshul December 6, 2025, 1:57:53 PM IST (Published)
Gold is closing in on one of its most remarkable years in decades, having set more than 50 all-time highs so far in 2025. Prices have surged over 60% year-to-date, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions, a softer US dollar, easing interest rates and a steady shift toward safe-haven assets.
With the year still underway and volatility expected to remain elevated, attention is already shifting to what 2026 may hold. The World Gold Council’s Gold Outlook 2026 assesses the conditions that could shape the next phase of the market and points to a wide range of possible outcomes.
Three scenarios that could shape 2026
The Council outlines three broad economic paths, each with different implications for gold:
A mild slowdown in the US eonomy
If US growth cools and the Federal Reserve cuts rates more aggressively than currently priced in, gold could rise 5–15%. A weaker dollar and a renewed appetite for risk aversion would support the move.
A deep and broad global recession
A more severe downturn, paired with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, could trigger a sharper flight to safety. In this scenario, the report sees prices potentially rising 15–30%, making it the strongest backdrop for bullion.
Stronger-than-expected US resilience
If the US economy outperforms forecasts and interest rates edge higher, gold could come under pressure. A firmer dollar and a rotation toward riskier assets may drive prices lower by 5–20%.
Two wildcards: Central bank buying and recycling supply
The report stresses that two unpredictable forces could tilt the balance next year:
Central bank buying:
Emerging markets still hold significantly lower gold reserves than developed economies. If geopolitical frictions intensify, these countries could accelerate purchases, offering additional support to prices.
Recycling supply:
Recycling flows have remained stable through 2025, but India is emerging as a key variable. Roughly 200 tonnes of gold have been pledged through organised channels this year.
If economic pressure leads households to liquidate pledged gold—or if retail buyers trade old jewellery instead of purchasing new—additional supply could weigh on prices in 2026.
Market snapshot
According to Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, gold is currently trading at ₹1,28,592.
“Gold is rebounding after a brief pause following its steady climb through the past week. The dip appeared temporary, and buyers have returned as global cues strengthen. The trend remains constructive, guided largely by investor positioning rather than sudden macro shifts,” she said.
