Gold prices dip — but is this correction or a shift in the safe-haven narrative?

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Gold started the week on a weak note, with spot prices down 0.7% at $4,082.77 per ounce and US futures losing 1% to $4,095.80 an ounce in early trade.

By Anshul   October 27, 2025, 10:16:43 AM IST (Published)

Gold prices edged lower on Monday (October 27) as a firmer US dollar and improving trade sentiment between Washington and Beijing pulled investors away from safe-haven assets. Markets are now eyeing central bank meetings later this week for policy direction.

Gold started the week on a weak note, with spot prices down 0.7% at $4,082.77 per ounce and US futures losing 1% to $4,095.80 an ounce in early trade.

In India, 24-karat gold was priced at ₹12,448 per gram, while 22-karat and 18-karat variants traded at ₹11,410 and ₹9,336 per gram respectively.

The US dollar rose to a more than two-week high against the yen, making gold less attractive for buyers holding other currencies. Meanwhile, signs of progress in US–China trade talks have added to the risk-on mood, prompting profit-taking in bullion after a strong two-month rally.

“This potential trade deal between the US and China came as a positive surprise for markets,” said Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com. “While that’s dampened gold’s appeal for now, expectations of continued loose fiscal and monetary policies should keep its broader uptrend intact.”

Attention has now shifted to the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday (October 29), where investors expect a 25-basis-point rate cut following softer inflation data. However, the key focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on whether more cuts lie ahead.

Gold tends to benefit from lower interest rates as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Adding to the cautious tone, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, slipped 0.52% to 1,046.93 metric tons on Friday — a sign of ebbing investor appetite.

Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said, “Gold prices continue to decline as safe-haven demand weakens amid optimism over a potential US–China trade deal and a stronger US dollar. This week is pivotal — from central bank meetings to global earnings, any positive surprise could spark further profit-taking.”

Rahul Kalantri, VP–Commodities, Mehta Equities, added, “After an exceptional rally, gold faced strong selling pressure as the dollar firmed and trade headlines turned positive. Support for gold is seen at $4,050–$4,005 an ounce, with resistance at $4,145–$4,165 an ounce. In India, prices may find support near ₹1.22 lakh –₹1.21 lakh per 10 gra,s.”

Outlook

Analysts expect gold to trade choppy in the near term, with the next leg of movement hinging on central bank commentary and the dollar’s direction. A dovish Fed stance could revive buying, but stronger economic cues or trade breakthroughs may extend the pullback.

-With Reuters inputs

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