Hezbollah In Complete Disarray After Pager Attacks, May Find It Tough To Regroup, Say Intelligence Sources

Hezbollah fighters pay tribute to four victims killed in the pager blasts, during their funeral procession in Beirut, Lebanon, on September 18. (Image: AP/Bilal Hussein)

An intelligence assessment note said the pager blasts threw the group into confusion and panic for hours, leaving it completely exposed and making it difficult to quickly regroup

Lebanon’s Hezbollah was already preparing for Israeli military escalation when it received a blow it did not see coming. The pager blasts threw the group into unprecedented disarray and left it completely exposed, making it difficult to quickly regroup, intelligence sources said.

According to an intelligence assessment note, which was accessed by CNN-News18, the collapse of Hezbollah’s internal telecommunications system is a dent on its capability as an organisation. These attacks will seriously undercut its capabilities and capacity to continue with the escalation against Israel, with that country declaring the start of a “new phase” of the Gaza war with focus on the northern front.

Intelligence sources said Hezbollah will now have to back off to regroup, which will possibly allow the Israelis to return to the north, making it difficult for the group to continue. In case it continues despite losses, Israel is likely to attack and push the group back into Lebanon, they said, adding that this will be much easier because the group has suffered human losses.

The sources further said the Iran-backed militant group’s operational weakness is now known to all and its own security lapses have made it vulnerable to more attacks. Its first security and scrutiny lapse was to use identical pagers of the same batch number, they added.

What is most important to note is that the group will take time to implement a new telecommunications system as new equipment will be under heavy scrutiny, said the sources. Rebuilding is never easy after human losses, while it is difficult to find fighters who believe in a similar ideology and cause, they said.

This was the case after the Syrian civil war as well, when Hezbollah was forced to lower its recruitment standards during its calculated expansion, they added. The group, which is known for military discipline and order, was thrown into confusion and panic for hours after thousands of pagers carried by its members exploded in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon on September 17.