How recent losses predict a Trudeau grand exit

The special election in Canada was a litmus test for the Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party. As it turns out, his party had lost the Montreal byelection, which had been a safe liberal seat for three decades. This is the second election his party has lost in the last three months. The Liberals lost Toronto, another party fortress, in June.

The defeat of the Montreal by elections raises questions about "Canada's deeply unpopular leader", according to The New York Times. The Bloc Québécois, a national party, won the elections which were held on September 16.

In Toronto proper, the Conservatives have defeated the Liberals for the first time since 2011.

The results of the byelections show one thing, that the support for Trudeau and his party is declining. “Justin’s position is seriously weakened inside the party,” said Canadian historian Robert Bothwell to AP after the loss of Toronto.

A tough race has been seen between the Liberals, the Quebec nationalist Bloc Québécois and the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP). This is ahead of the general elections which will be held by 2025. Trudeau is sure he will still lead his party despite the double losses in Montreal and Toronto by-elections.

Liberal MPs like Pablo Rodriguez left the party and Trudeau's coalition partner, Jagmeet Singh has walked out of his minority government.

LOSS OF MONTREAL BIG SETBACK FOR TRUDEAU

In the parliamentary seat of LaSalle-‰mard-Verdun, Louis-Philippe Sauvé from the Bloc Québécois party won by 28% to 27.2% of the Liberal party.

The elections were held to replace a Liberal MP who had quit, showing the sinking popularity of Trudeau which might lead to his grand exit after nine years in office.

Three years ago, in 2021, the Liberal party emerged victorious in the Montreal seat with 43% vote to 22% of Québécois.

Trudeau is still moving forward.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win,’’ said Trudeau. “But there’s more work to do, and we’re going to stay focused on doing it.”

But this has made Trudeau's run in the election next year even more difficult.

The last five polls, by reputed pollsters of Canada -- Nanos, Abacus, Ipsos, Leger, Angus Reid – predicted the liberals at an average of 20 points behind the Conservatives, noted Andrew Coyne in The Globe and Mail.

SECOND SETBACK IN 3 MONTHS: TORONTO GONE IN JUNE

Before the loss of Montreal, all eyes had been on Toronto.

Toronto was also a seat which the Liberal party had kept for three decades.

Here, the Conservative candidate, Don Stewart, won by 600 votes, 42.1% over the 40.5 % of the Liberal candidate.

“The pressure on Trudeau to announce that he will be stepping down is now insurmountable,” Nelson Wiserman, Professor Emeritus at the University of Toronto told AP.

“Toronto-St. Paul’s was one of only 40 seats the Liberals won when they experienced their worst performance ever, in 2011. If the Liberals cannot win this district, Wiseman said, “how can they hope to win a general election?," Wiserman added.

The liberals had won Toronto-St. Paul's since 1993. It is one of the 338 seats in Canada's House of Commons.

The loss of Canada's largest city does not look promising for Trudeau.

ELECTION LOSSES HINT AT TRUDEAU'S GRAND EXIT IN 2025?

The New Democratic Party (NDP) withdrew its support for Trudeau's minority government. The Jagmeet Singh-led NDP said it was doing so because Trudeau was not following through on his promises. But experts say this withdrawal was because of Trudeau's soaring popularity in Canada.

This comes after Pablo Rodriguez, a liberal MP, is leaving the cabinet and joining Quebec’s provincial Liberals — a party now in third place in Canada, reports the Toronto Sun.

The loss in these elections made the "heavyweights, elder statesmen, fundraisers and campaign strategists have all urged Mr. Trudeau to leave" reports The Globe and Mail.

Two sources even told The Globe and Mail, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England told Trudeau that he would not be able to win the July election.

"I’ve looked at polling data back to 1940: There is no case of a government coming back to win from this kind of deficit, especially this late in the cycle," added Andrew Coyne in The Globe and Mail.

Even when the Conservatives lagged behind in 1993 and the Liberals in 1984. It did not end up well for the incumbents.

A grand exit might await Trudeau, who refuses to give up despite big losses in the byelections and dipping popularity.