‘Horizontal Escalation’: Why US-Israel War With Iran Could Become Very Costly For The World

Last Updated:March 14, 2026, 17:29 IST

The Israel-US war with Iran saw Trump and Netanyahu kill Iran’s leader, Khamenei. Tehran responds with "horizontal escalation" targeting Gulf states and global energy supplies.

As the Israel-US war with Iran continues, it have become a ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each of which threatens to become a trap.

Since the beginning of the war, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders but the clerical regime remains and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is unsecured.

According to a report by The Guardian, Tehran’s counter is a “horizontal escalation", one long prepared by the regime, that is intended to widen the conflict geographically, with strikes on the Gulf states, and also in terms of the costs to Washington and the global economy, not least in energy supplies.

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“There are several stages to the escalation trap," Robert Pape, a US historian, told the media outlet. “What we saw with the initial attack was tactically almost 100% success," he said. “The problem is that when that doesn’t lead to strategic success … you get to second stage of the trap."

“The attacker still has escalation dominance, so there is a doubling down, which then moves

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