How An Activist’s Killing Sparked A Crisis That Shadowed Bangladesh’s Feb 12 Polls | Exclusive

Last Updated:December 23, 2025, 13:20 IST

Amid protests and calls for justice for Hadi, Bangladesh's Yunus has promised polls on time. News18 decodes intel assessment of how the crisis could impact political situation

Muhammad Yunus said general elections will be held on February 12, saying the country was determined to restore democratic rights stolen by an autocratic regime. (File/PTI)

At a time when Bangladesh should have been bracing for its much-needed elections in February 2026, the country is witnessing street violence, triggered by the killing of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi.

Hadi was shot at close range on December 12 in Dhaka’s Bijoynagar area, a day after the Election Commission announced that the next national election would be held on February 12. He was airlifted to Singapore for advanced treatment on December 15, but died on December 18.

News18 decodes intelligence assessment of how the crisis could add to the political instability in the country.

Bangladesh elections 2026: Intelligence assessment on number game, ground reality

The elections are crucial for the country marred by political upheaval since 2024, which led to the ouster of then PM Sheikh Hasina, and formation of an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.

Intelligence sources analysed the numbers and ground sentiment. “Yunus lacks a mass vote base and derives relevance from instability. Hasina’s Awami League has 30% vote share and Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh ist Party (BNP) was ready to use that in the form of independent candidates. Zia’s son and current chief of BNP Tarique Rahman was to reach Dhaka on December 5, 2025, but hasn’t so far," they said.

“Given the current situation, an announcement of elections could only add to the violence. Earlier, the protests were led by structured cadres, but the current trend is leaderless and decentralised, adding to the unpredictability and risk. Many sections in the Yunus-led administration are anyway not keen on the elections, and the street violence could work in their favour," according to the assessment.

Meanwhile, radical groups in Bangladesh are sustaining the anti-India sentiment to keep the pressure intact. For instance, the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh is using large Friday venues such as the Baitul Mukarram Mosque, Khatunganj Jame Masjid, and Shahi Eidgah for sermons against India, mentioning Ayodhya, Kashmir, NRC, CAA, and border incidents, according to intelligence sources. The Qawmi and Aliya madrasas are systemically training students, with India-centric modules highlighting the alleged “injustice" through informal discussions, guest preachers. They are using digital media by making reels, voice notes in Bangla as portray India in bad light, claim sources.

Dipu Chandra Das, a young Hindu garment factory worker in Bhaluka, Mymensingh district in Bangladesh, was attacked and beaten to death by a mob on December 18, after unverified rumours spread that he had insulted Islam, even though investigators later found no evidence that he made any blasphemous remarks. A Hindu rickshaw puller, Gobinda Biswas, in Jhenaidah district was assaulted by a mob after rumours spread accusing him of being linked to an Indian intelligence agency. The incidents have led to outrage and protests in India.

Will hold general elections on February 12, affirms Yunus

Yunus, on Monday reaffirmed his commitment to holding general elections on February 12, saying the country was determined to restore democratic rights that had been stolen by an autocratic regime.

“The nation is eagerly waiting to exercise their voting rights," Yunus said, during a telephone conversation with Sergio Gor, the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, around 7:30 pm (Dhaka time). He later shared details of the discussion in a post on X.

No elections till Hadi gets justice: Inqilab Moncho

Hadi was among those leading the student-led uprising of mid-2024 that helped topple the long-time government of Sheikh Hasina. He was the spokesperson and co-founder of Inqilab Moncho (Platform for Revolution), a youth political movement rooted in the anti-government protests. His death led to large protests across Bangladesh, led mainly by students and young activists. Demonstrators gathered in Dhaka and other cities demanding justice. While many rallies began peacefully, some turned violent, with clashes between protesters and security forces and attacks on media offices and political buildings.

The Inqilab Moncho has now demanded that his killers be brought to justice before the 13th national election and the referendum takes place in Bangladesh, BDNews24 reported on Monday. According to BDNews24, Member Secretary Abdullah Al Jaber of the group said at a media briefing on Monday that it will protest in the streets until justice is delivered. “You can’t get away without informing [the people] who the murderer of Hadi was by just holding an election — this is not done. Justice [for Hadi] must be ensured before the election. Otherwise, no election will take place. Inqilab Moncho will not leave the streets until the murderers and their backers are brought to justice."

As per BDNews24, the group also demanded the formation of a “judicial tribunal" involving foreign intelligence agencies like the FBI and the Scotland Yard. BD News further reported that the platform placed three demands which include the formation of a fast-track judicial tribunal to try the killing of Hadi, with the investigation involving international intelligence agencies, including the FBI and Scotland Yard, identification and prosecution of Awami collaborators allegedly hiding within civil and military intelligence structures and the home advisor, Chief Advisor’s Special Assistant Khoda Baksh, and the law advisor to provide explanations and then resign from their posts.

Hadi killing: Action taken so far

Bangladesh’s Law Adviser Asif Nazrul on Monday said the murder case of Hadi will be taken up by the Speedy Trial Tribunal to ensure timely justice, according to the Daily Star. In a Facebook post, Asif Nazrul said the trial will be conducted under the Speedy Trial Tribunal Act, 2002. He added that, under Section 10 of the law, the trial must be completed within 90 days of the police submitting their investigation report, the Daily Star reported.

Separately, Home Adviser Lt Gen (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury said authorities have made progress in the investigation and are working to arrest the main accused, Faisal Karim Masud. He said the government is treating the case as a top priority and stressed that all those involved in the killing will be brought to justice.

Speaking after a meeting on the law and order situation at the Secretariat, Jahangir Alam said joint forces comprising police, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) have arrested 10 people so far. Those detained include the prime suspect’s wife, his parents, his brother-in-law, and the owner of the motorcycle allegedly used in the murder, Daily Star reported.

When asked about the whereabouts of the primary shooter, the home adviser said, “If we knew where he was, he would have already been arrested." He declined to share further details, citing the sensitivity of the ongoing investigation, Daily Star quoted.

Just days after the assassination of Bangladeshi activist Inqaib Moncho leader Osman Hadi, another political leader from the Jatiya Sramik Shakti, an affiliate of the Citizen Party (NCP), was shot in broad daylight in Khulna, according to BD News. Motaleb Shikdar, a leader of Jatiya Sramik Shakti, the labour wing affiliated with the NCP, was rushed to Khulna Medical College Hospital in a critical condition around midday.

With inputs from ANI, agencies

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