Iran bets Strait of Hormuz pressure will force US to accept control

Washington,UPDATED: Aug 8, 2026 13:48 IST

Iran believes time is on its side in the war over the Strait of Hormuz, and is betting that military pressure and the economic cost of a prolonged disruption will force the United States to accept its control over the key waterway. Tehran appears to see the strait not only as a battlefield advantage, but also as leverage in its wider confrontation with Washington.

At the same time, Iran's strategy carries clear risks. US President Donald Trump has pointed to strikes that have badly hit Iran's top leadership, navy and air force, while also alternating between threats of escalation and claims that talks are progressing. Iran's economy has also been hit hard by the war and the US blockade, and the country has seen mass protests in recent months.

Iran has said it is close to a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which lies between the two countries, but that any agreement would depend on the US lifting its blockade. That means Trump would still have to approve it, even if there are no direct talks, as Iran claims. It remains unclear whether such a deal would allow Iran to charge fees, but it would formalise its control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas.

Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran's effective control of the strait has given it leverage with the US and regional countries. "More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait," he said from Tehran. Any formal control over even part of the strait would mark a clear gain for Iran and a setback for the US, which has still not achieved some of its shifting war aims. It would also challenge freedom of navigation, a concern shared by much of the world. China, which buys oil from Iran and has influence over it, said as recently as May that "normal and safe passage" through the strait should be restored.

Iranian officials and analysts have made clear that Tehran sees the strait as its strongest pressure point. "They started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide for ourselves when it ends," Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator, posted on social media. "Iran is going after the enemy's defeat - not an agreement." He said a surprise Iranian attack on Jordan in July had "compensated" for a drop in oil prices and contributed to the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June that had offered major concessions to Iran, including a US waiver to sell oil internationally and the promise of wider sanctions relief.

Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to being an open waterway and that it will keep attacking ships trying to pass without its permission. Iran's joint military command has called it an "unbreakable red line". Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based security analyst, said, "For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf." Rahman Ghahremanpour, another Iran-based analyst, said the dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme had for now slipped down the agenda. "The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran's interests," he said, adding that control over the strait would give Iran more leverage if nuclear talks resume.

The economic fallout has been felt around the world, but the pressure inside Iran is especially severe. US and Israeli strikes have damaged its industrial base, while the US blockade has cut deeply into its oil exports. Food inflation has surged into triple digits, and Trump has repeatedly threatened major strikes on civilian infrastructure such as water and electricity. In December, a currency crisis triggered some of the biggest anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history. The authorities responded with a violent crackdown in which thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.

There is also concern within Iran that the strategy could go too far. Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, wrote in a recent essay that Iran's gains in the war had opened "an exceptional window for diplomacy". But he warned that if a deal is not reached soon, "economic recovery will be difficult, and the possibility of internal unrest or renewed aggression, especially after the US elections, cannot be ruled out." The conflict has already defied early expectations. After the first wave of US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 killed Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials, Trump had suggested the war would be over within weeks.

Instead, the conflict has strengthened Iran's leaders and rallied their supporters. Ghahremanpour said Tehran is using the strait "to show that it has not been defeated" and added, "It can increase its legitimacy at home." But he also said the approach has limits: "Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America." Davari, however, said Iran could endure the pressure for now. "It's unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions," he said. For now, the battle over the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the war, the pressure on the US, and Iran's effort to strengthen its hand in any future negotiations.

With PTI Inputs

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