Iran uses Strait of Hormuz control to press US as war costs mount

Cairo,UPDATED: Aug 8, 2026 10:04 IST

Iran believes it is gaining leverage in the war by tightening its hold over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies, and is betting that military pressure will force the United States to accept that position. Tehran appears to believe time is on its side, pointing to dwindling US stocks of key weapons, the war's unpopularity in America, the political pressure of high fuel and goods prices ahead of the US congressional elections in November, and the risk that any attempt to reopen the strait by force could be costly and may require American ground troops.

But the strategy also carries major risks for Iran. US President Donald Trump has pointed to strikes that have badly damaged Iran's top leadership, navy and air force, while alternating between threats of escalation and claims that talks are going well. Iran's own economy has been badly hit by the war and the US blockade, and mass protests that broke out just months ago could return.

Iran says it is close to a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which lies between the two countries, though the arrangement would depend on the US lifting its blockade. Even without direct talks, as Iran says, any such move would require Trump's approval. It is not clear whether the deal would let Iran charge fees, but it would formalise Iranian control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, carrying a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran's control of the strait had given it leverage with the US and regional countries. "More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait," he said from Tehran.

Formal control over even part of the strait would mark a clear gain for Iran and a setback for the US, which has still not met some of its shifting war aims. It would also challenge the principle of freedom of navigation and set a precedent many countries would find troubling. China, which buys Iranian oil and has influence in Tehran, said as recently as May that "normal and safe passage" through the strait should be restored.

Iranian officials and analysts have made clear that they see the strait as their strongest lever. "They started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide for ourselves when it ends," Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator, wrote on social media. "Iran is going after the enemy's defeat - not an agreement." He said a surprise Iranian attack on Jordan in July "compensated" for a fall in oil prices and helped bring down an interim agreement reached in June that had offered major concessions to Iran, including a US waiver to sell oil internationally and the promise of wider sanctions relief.

Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to being an open waterway and that it will continue attacking ships trying to pass through without its permission. Iran's joint military command has described that as an "unbreakable red line". Mostafa Najafi, a security analyst based in Tehran, said, "For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf." Rahman Ghahremanpour, another Iran-based analyst, said the dispute over the strait had pushed the nuclear issue to the side, which was in Iran's interest. He said control of the waterway would give Tehran added leverage if nuclear talks resume.

The economic fallout from the war has spread worldwide but has been especially severe in Iran. US and Israeli strikes have hit its industrial base, the US blockade has choked much of its oil exports, and people are facing triple-digit food inflation. Trump has also repeatedly threatened major strikes on civilian infrastructure such as water and electricity. In December, a currency crisis triggered some of the biggest anti-government protests in the 47-year history of the Islamic Republic, and the authorities responded with a bloody crackdown in which thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.

There are also concerns within Iran that the country may be pushing too far. Those worries include people close to moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian. Mohammad Javad Zarif, who helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal as foreign minister, wrote in a recent essay that Iran's gains in the war had opened "an exceptional window for diplomacy". But he warned that if a deal was not reached soon, "economic recovery will be difficult, and the possibility of internal unrest or renewed aggression, especially after the US elections, cannot be ruled out."

The war has already produced outcomes few expected. After the first wave of US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 killed Iran's supreme leader and other top officials, Trump suggested the conflict would end within weeks. Instead, it has emboldened Iran's leaders and mobilised their supporters. Ghahremanpour said Tehran was using the strait "to show that it has not been defeated" and that "It can increase its legitimacy at home." At the same time, he warned that the approach could fail if economic pressure deepens. "Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America," he said. Davari, however, said that for now Iran could absorb the pressure, adding, "It's unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions."

For now, Iran is trying to use the Strait of Hormuz as its main source of leverage in the war, while weighing that strategy against economic strain at home, the risk of renewed unrest, and the uncertainty of any deal linked to the US blockade.

With PTI Inputs

- Ends