Israel Army Admits 'Overconfidence' Ahead Of October 7 Attack, 'Failure' In Predicting Hamas' Capabilities

Last Updated:February 27, 2025, 23:45 IST

The official said the army had not maintained "a comprehensive understanding of the enemy’s military capabilities" and that it was "overconfident" in its knowledge

Israeli tanks drive towards the occupied West Bank of Jenin camp. (IMAGE: AP PHOTO)

The Israeli military admitted a ‘complete failure’ in preventing the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas-led militants, an internal probe into the assault revealed. The investigation by the Israeli military, which was released on Thursday, also stated that Hamas was able to carry out the deadliest attack in Israeli history because the much more powerful Israeli army misjudged the militant group’s intentions and underestimated its capabilities.

The findings could pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch a widely demanded broader inquiry to examine the political decision-making that preceded the attack, which triggered the war in Gaza.

Meawnhile, several Israelis believe the mistakes of October 7 extend beyond the military, and they blame Netanyahu for what they view as a failed strategy of deterrence and containment. That strategy included allowing Qatar to send suitcases of cash into Gaza and sidelining Hamas’s rival, the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority, reported Associated Press.

Netanyahu has not taken responsibility, saying he will answer tough questions only after the war, which has been paused for nearly six weeks by a tenuous ceasefire. Despite public pressure, including from the families of the roughly 1,200 people killed in the October 7 attack and the 251 taken as hostages into Gaza, Netanyahu has resisted calls for a commission of inquiry.

Israeli Army Admits ‘Overconfidence’

The military’s main findings were that the region’s most powerful and sophisticated military misread Hamas’s intentions, underestimated its capabilities and was wholly unprepared for the surprise attack by thousands of heavily armed militants in the early morning hours of a major Jewish holiday.

“October 7 was a complete failure, the IDF (military) failed in fulfilling its mission to protect Israeli civilians," the official said on condition of anonymity, AFP reported.

“Too many civilians died that day asking themselves in their hearts or out loud, where was the IDF," the official added.

The official said the army had not maintained “a comprehensive understanding of the enemy’s military capabilities" and that it was “overconfident" in its knowledge.

IDF Misjudged Capabilities Of Hamas

A central misconception was that Hamas, which seized control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2007, was more interested in governing the territory than fighting Israel, the inquiry found.

The military also misjudged the militant group’s capabilities. Military planners had envisioned that, at worst, Hamas could stage a ground invasion from up to eight border points, the official said. In fact, Hamas had more than 60 attack routes.

Intelligence assessed in the aftermath of the attack has shown Hamas came close to staging the offensive on three earlier occasions but delayed it for unknown reasons, the official said.

The official said that in the hours before the attack, there were signs that something was amiss, including when Hamas fighters switched their phones over to the Israeli network.

The perception that Hamas did not want war guided decision makers away from taking action that might have thwarted the attack. The Israeli military official said intelligence shows that Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack who was killed last October, had begun planning it as early as 2017.

With the military off guard on a holiday weekend, Hamas launched a heavy wave of rockets that allowed thousands of fighters to burst through the security fence or fly over it on hang gliders. They knocked out surveillance cameras and quickly overwhelmed hundreds of soldiers stationed along the border.

From there they advanced to key highway intersections and attacked troops dispatched to the area, including some senior officers, disrupting the military’s command and control, according to a second military official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

For the first three hours after the attack, Hamas fighters marauded through border communities and a music festival with little resistance. That was when most of the 251 hostages were taken and most people were killed, the official said. The official said the chaos led to friendly fire incidents, although he said there were not many, without disclosing a figure.

It took hours for the military to regain control and days until the area was fully cleared of militants.

According to the first official, the report blamed the military for being overconfident in its knowledge and not showing enough doubt in its core concepts and beliefs. It did n

ot place blame on any individual soldiers or officers, but is likely to pave the way for a reckoning in the military and eventual dismissals.

Some high-ranking officers have already resigned, including the former head of military intelligence and Israel’s top general, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, who steps down next week.

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