Milken Institute’s William Lee on why the US is reshaping trade, not retreating & where India fits in

The latest wave of tariffs announced by the US is not about isolation, but negotiation. That’s the message from William Lee, Chief Economist and Executive Director at the Milken Institute, who argues that the market’s muted response to rising tariffs reflects an understanding that a global trade reset is underway.

Lee believes the tariffs are a strategic tool aimed at accelerating bilateral talks. “The purpose of the tariffs was to initiate discussions and accelerate them,” he said, stating that President Trump’s approach is focused on restructuring global trade into a more deal-based framework. “President Trump is not trying to isolate the United States. He’s trying to engage in much more bilateral and regional trade.”

What makes this round of tariffs unique, according to Lee, is not just their scope but their intent. “It’s not about tariffs. It’s about not being able to get into your markets,” he said, pointing to long-standing non-tariff barriers from allies like Japan, Canada, and even India. “Let’s have open markets. That’s the objective of these discussions—open up both sides and we will both benefit.”

The US isn’t necessarily trying to reduce its overall trade deficit, but to redistribute it. “He’s not trying to get rid of the overall deficit. Americans just consume way too much,” Lee said. “He’s trying to shift the deficits to our friends and take them away from our competitors.” The goal, Lee explained, is to correct structural imbalances caused by both tariff and non-tariff barriers.

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While critics argue this could stoke inflation, Lee believes the impact will be manageable. Using consumer behaviour as an example, he said, “I’m going to look for T-shirts not so much made from Bangladesh, but Mexico or other areas with lower tariffs… there are substitutes you can do.” This adaptability, he says, will help contain price shocks.

India, in this shifting landscape, finds itself in a unique position. According to Lee, “India is in that position of saying, we will open our economy.” But the real question now, he adds, is “What sectors and how much can we engage in a bilateral trade that’s beneficial for both?”

Also Read: India faces $8 billion in added export costs if US tariff talks fail: Johns Hopkins economist

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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