NATO warns Putin growing more dangerous as covert attacks rise in Europe

Tallinn,UPDATED: Sep 23, 2026 03:24 IST

Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming "increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting" as the war in Ukraine drags on and as he tries to divide Western allies, NATO's deputy commander in Europe has said. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer made the remarks at a security conference in Estonia amid growing concern in Europe over sabotage, espionage and repeated drone and missile incidents linked to Russia.

European leaders have given differing assessments of the threat, with some warning that Moscow could test NATO's collective defence pact through bolder action, while others have urged calm. Stringer said NATO members must be aware of the "febrile environment" and avoid an "overreaction", which he said Putin would like to provoke.

Speaking to The Associated Press on Tuesday, Stringer said the line between "accidental and deliberate is quite a fine one", referring to drones entering NATO airspace after being sent off course by Russian GPS jamming or other electronic countermeasures intended to defend against Ukrainian drone strikes. He said Russia could escalate such activity, but that did not mean Moscow had decided to do so.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week that Russia might target NATO countries with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming they were accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron agreed and asked his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure against possible drone attacks and cyberattacks. A British defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters, said the UK's assessment was that Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Officials in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have also taken a more cautious view of the chances of serious escalation, despite years of urging Western countries to take a harder line on Moscow.

European countries have already faced multiple incursions by Russian drones and several missiles, along with a covert campaign of disruption that began after Putin's invasion of Ukraine. An AP interactive map tracking that campaign showed an increase from 59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 incidents ranging from vandalism, propaganda and influence operations to arson, sabotage and cyberattacks. In August, German officials accused Moscow of involvement in a plot at Leipzig airport, where a drone carrying explosives was found next to a Ukrainian plane loaded with jet fuel. Last month, British officials said they had disrupted a Russian plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London. In August, an Estonian defence company was set on fire and a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded, though neither has been publicly attributed to Russia.

Officials say many saboteurs are recruited online by Russia's intelligence services, and some do not know they are working for Moscow, making plots hard to uncover and responsibility difficult to establish. When asked by AP in May whether Russia was waging a covert campaign against the West, Putin replied: "Name one proven fact."

Stringer and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal both said the rise in covert attacks was not due to a failure by NATO countries to stop them, but was a direct result of Western support for Ukraine. Putin, Stringer said, is "looking at a whole number of things" to create division among NATO allies because his campaign in Ukraine is going badly. Michal described Putin as a "rat in the corner", saying he was increasing activity in Europe in an effort to weaken Western backing for Kyiv while Moscow was under pressure.

According to Air Chief Marshall Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the UK's defence staff, Russia's gains on the front lines in Ukraine have been slow and have come at a steep cost of more than half a million dead, even as Kyiv's deep-strike campaign on Russia's energy sector has led to fuel shortages in 80 of 83 Russian regions. Even so, there is no indication that Putin is stepping back from his goals in Ukraine. Michal said Putin was trying to undermine NATO's collective defence pact by testing countries with covert attacks that are difficult to attribute, but added that it is currently "improbable" that Russia would launch a conventional military attack on Europe because of the risk of a NATO response and because Russian forces remain tied down in Ukraine.

Michal said the high level of malign activity from Russia is "here to stay" until Putin changes his military goals, and added that the best way to deter it is to "back Ukraine". The warnings from NATO and European leaders together point to continued concern over covert Russian activity, even as officials differ on the risk of a wider direct confrontation.

With PTI Inputs

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