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HomeMarket NewsNifty September F&O Setup: Lowest ever FII long exposure at the start of a series
Historically, September has been a good series for the Nifty, with three out of the last four years, resulting in gains. Incidentally, it was at the end of the September series of 2024, that the Nifty had made its record high of 26,277, a level it has not managed to see again till date.
By CNBCTV18August 29, 2025, 7:48:28 AM IST (Published)
The Nifty 50 index heads into the September series after two consecutive ones with losses. August also ended on a negative note for the index as it gave up key support levels enroute to further downside after the 50% tariffs threatened by the US administration took effect on Wednesday.
The Nifty 50 index has lost nearly 1,000 points on in the last two series.
A key highlight at the start of the September series is that the long exposure of foreign institutions is at the lowest ever. FIIs are currently net short at 1.68 lakh contracts.
| Month | FII Longs In Futures (%) |
| September | 8 |
| August | 10 |
| July | 38 |
| June | 20 |
| May | 41 |
| April | 40 |
However, extreme short positions for FIIs at the start of the series have also resulted in a strong upmove on the Nifty in the subsequent series.
| Series | Long Positions | Subsequent Nifty Move |
| August 2023 | 9% | 2,579 Points In Next Four Series |
| November 2023 | 11% | 2,921 Points In Next To Series |
| February 2025 | 11% | 2,300 Points In Next Five Series |
Historically, September has been a good series for the Nifty, with three out of the last four years, resulting in gains. Incidentally, it was at the end of the September series of 2024, that the Nifty had made its record high of 26,277, a level it has not managed to see again till date.
| September Series Year | Returns (Points) | Returns (%) |
| 2021 | 981 | 5.9 |
| 2022 | -704 | -4 |
| 2023 | 270 | 1.4 |
| 2024 | 1,064 | 4.2 |
At the start of the September series, Nifty's rollovers stand a 83.6%, which is higher than the three-month average of 78.1%, and also higher than the 75.7% at the start of the August series.
| Series | Rollovers |
| September | 83.6% |
| August | 75.7% |
| July | 79.5% |
| June | 79.1% |
| May | 79.1% |
Here are some of the key triggers that lie ahead of the Nifty at the start of the September series:
Reliance Industries AGM on August 29
GST council meeting on rate rationalisation on September 3-4
Any progress on India-US trade talks and tariffs
US Federal Reserve meeting outcome on September 17
Pre-festive buying
Impact on demand due to heavy floods in North India
