NOAA says El Nino is heading towards historically strong levels by autumn

Washington,UPDATED: Jul 9, 2026 20:10 IST

An intensifying El Nino is heading towards historically strong levels, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its monthly update. The weather pattern, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather across the world, has an 81 per cent chance of becoming 'very strong' by autumn, the highest category used by the agency.

NOAA said this year’s El Nino, which formed only last month, has already moved past the weak stage and is now considered moderate, with no sign of its strengthening slowing down. Meteorologists said its biggest effects, from droughts and heavy rain to heatwaves, are likely to be felt most in the autumn and winter.

Ocean temperatures in key parts of the Pacific used to measure El Nino are at or near record highs for this time of year, meteorologists said. They added that this is partly because the phenomenon is unfolding on top of ocean warming caused by climate change. “It’s pretty extreme,” said Emily Becker, a University of Miami scientist who works with the NOAA El Nino forecast team. “Not unprecedented, but very unusual.”

Becker said it will rival the 1997-1998 El Nino, while other meteorologists said it could be even stronger. The World Bank has said the El Nino that began in 1997 led to 23,000 deaths in weather disasters, pushed up poverty rates in some countries and cost governments as much as USD 45 billion. “This is not a run-of-the-mill El Nino,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. He said it is not only already breaking records for this time of year, but is also developing alongside significant background warming from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. “We might not expect to see the exact same impacts from this event as we have seen in historical ones,” he said.

Becker said a very strong El Nino, based on ocean temperatures in parts of the Pacific, does not automatically mean more severe extreme weather, but it does make such conditions more likely. She said it raises the chances of a wetter winter across most of the southern United States and makes warmer winter conditions more likely in the northern United States and Canada. El Nino also usually weakens the Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season forecasts, on Wednesday sharply cut its forecast for the number of storms “due to increased confidence in a strong or very strong El Nino”. Its forecasters said overall Atlantic hurricane activity would be “well below normal”.

Becker said the pattern also makes drier conditions in Indonesia and warmer, wetter conditions in the eastern Pacific more likely. In a blog post, Swain wrote: “El Nino also acts as a ‘thermostat’ for global climate by liberating years’ worth of accumulated heat stored in the subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean and dumping it into the atmosphere, where it eventually dissipates – but not before warming the entire planet in the meantime.” Many climate scientists are predicting that 2027, because of pent-up heat, will break the 2024 global high temperature record set by the last strong El Nino. “A strong El Nino would raise the odds of dramatic new climate records over the next 6 to 12 months,” said Zack Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central. Overall, NOAA and climate scientists said the current El Nino is strengthening quickly and could rank among the strongest recorded since tracking began in 1950.

With PTI Inputs

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