Pakistan May Strike Afghanistan Again, Kabul May Retaliate Strongly: ICG Report | Exclusive

Last Updated:January 04, 2026, 14:28 IST

10 conflicts that may escalate in 2026: The Crisis Group (ICG) list includes Venezuala, Israel-Palestine-US, US-Israel versus Houthis crises

The violence has crossed back over the Durand Line, and the cost is being paid by Pakistani civilians and soldiers alike. Representational image

The Pakistan-Afghanistan clash is among the 10 key conflicts expected to escalate in 2026, according to Crisis Group’s (ICG) flagship report published recently.

The report predicts that Islamabad is likely to lash out at Kabul again if it traces another strike back to Afghanistan.

The Taliban regime is badly outgunned, but its retaliation could still be lethal. Kabul claims to have missiles that can reach Pakistani cities, the use of which would likely provoke a still stronger Pakistani response.

The ICG analysts and experts claim that “talks between Afghan and Pakistani defence ministers in Doha, Qatar, in October yielded a ceasefire. But subsequent rounds in Istanbul have not eased bilateral tensions. Diplomatic ties are suspended. Trade has ceased. Islamabad’s actions against Afghan nationals on its territory, including mass deportations, have further angered Kabul. The Taliban, meanwhile, are fuelling Pakistan’s suspicion by forging closer ties with India."

The report further adds, “In South Asia, though, Islamabad’s foreign relations are far more fraught. After short wars in 2025 with both Afghanistan and India, another major attack by militants could upend the precarious calm that prevails between Pakistan and its two neighbours."

THE 10 CONFLICTS

The publication examines the following crises:

Venezuela

Sudan

Ethiopia-Eritrea

Mali & Burkina Faso

Ukraine, Syria

Israel-Palestine

Israel & the United States vs Iran

US-Israel vs Houthis

Myanmar

Afghanistan-Pakistan.

TTP HAS AFGHAN TALIBAN’S SUPPORT: ICG REPORT

The Afghan Taliban has publicly denied that Pakistani militants are even in Afghanistan and say Islamabad provoked what they paint as homegrown violence, according to the report.

For Kabul, the Tehree-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is too big, and its ties to the Taliban are too strong, it states. The ICG analysts and experts fear that “while a ceasefire holds for now, points out the ICG, but if militant violence persists, Pakistan will likely strike again".

AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN TIES

The Afghanistan-Pakistan ties have been tense as clashes broke out after Pakistan reportedly launched cross-border airstrikes in Kabul on October 9, 2025, targeting TTP camps. Pakistan accused the Afghan Taliban of harbouring TTP militants, responsible for killing hundreds of Pakistani soldiers since 2021. In response, Taliban mounted a major counteroffensive across the border, killing 58 Pakistani soldiers and destroying 20 security outposts .

With Agency Inputs

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