Tata Steel shares may see 15% upside on strong domestic outlook

Shares of Tata Steel Ltd. are in focus on Thursday, February 19, as brokerage firm Motilal Oswal's remains constructive on the stock.

The analyst has a 'buy' rating on Tata Steel, with a price target of ₹240 per share, an upside potential of 15% from its previous close of ₹208.95 apiece.

Motilal Oswal said it remains constructive on the back of a strong domestic demand, safeguard duty-led price support, ongoing capacity expansions and a gradual turnaround in its EU business.

The analyst has a strong domestic demand outlook on the steel firm. The company is expanding its capacity in India to capitalise on rising domestic demand, selling from 26.5 MTPA in FY25 to 40 MTPA in FY31.

The capacity expansion will drive earnings amid demand upswing, the brokerage said.

Motilal Oswal said steel prices are set to recover, backed by safeguard duty, carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and China's supply business.

It also sees safeguard duty-led price support. Hot roil coal prices have rebounded from ₹47,500 per tonne in the third quarter to ₹53,500 per tonne in February 2026.

Tata Steel's EU business is also seeing a gradual turnaround. The European operations are making visible progress towards breakeven.

The transformation programme is on track, with the UK targeted to break even in the next few quarters.

The Europe business' EBITDA per tonne witnessed narrowing of losses to $10 per tonne in the third quarter from $42 per tonne in the year-ago period.

Of the 31 analysts who have coverage on the stock, 22 have a 'buy' rating, seven have a 'hold' rating and three have a 'sell' rating.

Tata Steel shares ended the previous session 2.8% up at ₹208.85 apiece. The stock has gained 53.8% in the past year.

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