The Trump-Xi Meeting: What To Expect From High-Stakes Talks And What Happens If They Fail

Last Updated:October 25, 2025, 10:04 IST

Trump’s five-day Asia tour will begin in Malaysia, move through Japan and South Korea, and may culminate in a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping

US President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for a five-day visit to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea, his first to the region since taking office earlier this year. The tour comes at a time of heightened geopolitical pressure for the Trump administration, which is balancing a stalled ceasefire in Gaza, continuing war in Ukraine, and growing economic friction with Beijing.

According to the White House, Trump’s Asia trip will focus on expanding trade access, securing critical minerals, and strengthening US alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Yet a major focus, and uncertainty, surrounds the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea.

Officials remain cautious about expectations from the long-anticipated meeting. “There’s no guarantee the meeting will happen, and even if it does, no one’s expecting a breakthrough," a senior US official told Reuters. “The goal right now is to manage differences, not eliminate them."

Where Are US-China Relations Now?

Relations between the US and China remain tense after a year of repeated confrontations over trade, technology, and critical supply chains. In April, the US imposed 145 per cent tariffs on most Chinese goods. Beijing responded with 125 per cent tariffs of its own.

After months of escalation, both sides agreed to a 90-day truce in May, reducing tariff levels and giving room for negotiation. This temporary deal was extended for another 90 days in August, but it is set to expire on November 10. If no new agreement is reached, the earlier higher tariffs could be reimposed.

Adding to the friction, China recently introduced a new set of export controls on strategic materials including rare earth elements, synthetic diamonds, and key lithium battery components. These materials are critical to electronics, defence, and clean energy sectors, and China controls around 90 per cent of global rare earth processing.

A significant provision in the new rules expands China’s jurisdiction beyond its borders to cover items manufactured abroad using controlled Chinese technology or materials. These measures also extend to technologies involved in rare earth mining and magnet production.

Trump has threatened further retaliation. The US president warned that a 100 per cent tariff could be imposed on Chinese goods beginning November 1 if talks fail, describing the rare earth export limits as a direct challenge to US interests.

What’s The Plan For The Trump-Xi Meeting?

Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongju from October 31 to November 1, their first face-to-face interaction since 2019. “On Thursday morning local time, President Trump will participate in a bilateral meeting with President Xi of the People’s Republic of China," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

However, Chinese authorities have not confirmed the meeting publicly.

Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, told Fox Business that the two leaders’ talks might only be an informal “pull-aside" during Trump’s time in South Korea. Trump, however, struck a different tone, telling reporters, “We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything," and added, “We’re going to make a deal on the rare earth."

The meeting, if it happens, is likely to cover trade, technology restrictions, rare earth exports, and wider geopolitical issues. According to Trump, discussions may also include agriculture and global conflicts. “What I’ll really be talking to him about is, how do we end the war with Russia and Ukraine, whether it’s through oil or energy or anything else. And I think he’s going to be very receptive," Trump said.

What’s Happening In Malaysia Ahead Of The Summit?

Before any potential summit, senior US and Chinese officials are meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the fifth round of trade negotiations. These talks are being led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

According to CNN, the Malaysia talks are focused on key areas of disagreement, particularly rare earth restrictions, technology controls, and tariff rollback. These discussions follow earlier rounds in Geneva, London, Stockholm, and Madrid.

Bessent told Fox Business, “I’m hoping that we can get this ironed out this weekend so that the leaders can enter their talks on a more positive note." He added that he does not rule out further escalation if Beijing’s rare earths regime isn’t paused or modified.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry said the discussions would address “key issues" in line with “important consensuses reached during recent phone conversations between Xi and Trump."

What Is APEC?

The APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) forum is a 21-member regional platform focused on promoting free trade and investment. Its members include the US, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and others around the Pacific Rim.

This year’s theme is “Building a Sustainable Tomorrow," and discussions will focus on strengthening supply chains, leveraging technologies like AI, and driving inclusive and environmentally responsible growth.

What Else Is On Trump’s Asia Agenda?

Trump’s first stop will be Kuala Lumpur, where he will attend the ASEAN summit hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. According to CNN, he is expected to participate in the ASEAN leaders’ working dinner and may witness the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia following recent border clashes.

From Malaysia, Trump will travel to Tokyo to meet Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Japan is expected to reaffirm a $550 billion investment plan in the United States during the visit.

In South Korea, Trump is scheduled to meet President Lee Jae Myung to discuss trade, defence cooperation, and worker migration policies, areas that have caused friction in recent months. He will then deliver remarks at the APEC CEO summit luncheon and attend a US–APEC leaders’ working dinner.

What Happens If Trump-Xi Talks Fail?

The outcome of Trump’s Asia tour, especially any dialogue with Xi Jinping, carries high stakes for global trade and political stability. If talks collapse, the US could impose tariffs of up to 155 per cent beginning November 1, a steep escalation from the current 55 per cent rate. Trump issued the warning last week, saying China may face the higher tariff burden unless a deal is reached.

Speaking at the White House, he said Beijing has been “very respectful" and is paying “tremendous amounts of money" under the current 55 per cent duties. “A lot of countries took advantage of the US, and they are not able to take advantage anymore. China’s paying 55 per cent and a potential 155 per cent come November 1st unless we make a deal," Trump added.

China, for its part, could tighten its grip on rare earth supplies or open investigations against US firms operating in Chinese markets.

Such escalation could trigger a renewed trade war and worsen global supply chain disruptions. Higher tariffs on Chinese imports would raise costs for American consumers and businesses, while the uncertainty could freeze investment, hamper growth, and fuel recessionary fears.

China, already grappling with domestic challenges, could see further economic strain. Small and medium businesses, a cornerstone of its economy, may face declining exports and rising job losses.

Speaking at a press conference on Friday, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao warned against decoupling and said, “The first four rounds of China–US economic and trade consultations have fully demonstrated that, on the basis of mutual respect and equal consultation, the two sides are fully capable of finding ways to address each other’s concerns."

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