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A Toyota Tundra at the New York Auto Show in New York City on April 2, 2026.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC
DETROIT – Toyota Motor is notably gaining on America's largest automaker, General Motors, in U.S. sales as hybrids get more popular and all-electric vehicles sputter.
The Japanese automaker is expected to report a nearly 1% increase in U.S. sales through the first half of this year to 1.25 million vehicles, while GM is projected to be down 7.2% to 1.33 million, according to a new forecast released Wednesday by Cox Automotive.
"At these rates, and what we're seeing right now in the selling rates, GM may be looking over their shoulder here when we get to the year's end, that Toyota could potentially overtake them as the top selling manufacturer here in the U.S. market," Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist and senior director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, said during a media event.
Chesbrough said he isn't yet forecasting that Toyota would top GM, but he said the trends are "concerning for General Motors."
The expected 83,255 difference in vehicle sales through the first half of the year would be the narrowest between the two automakers since Toyota topped GM in U.S. sales for the first time ever in 2021. That was in part the result of supply chain issues during the coronavirus pandemic.
At that time, Toyota chair and company scion Akio Toyoda said he did a "happy dance" when learning of the win, but executives said the company didn't expect it to be sustainable. Other than that year, GM has been the top-selling automaker in the U.S. since 1931, according to industry data.
Toyota's gains come as the automaker has continued to roll out new models, including all-electric vehicles, while continuing to double down on its hybrid vehicles, where it's been a leader for decades.
GM, meanwhile, heavily invested in all-electric vehicles instead of hybrids, many times referring to them as a transitional technology. The Detroit automaker's sole hybrid is a Corvette, while it offers a full lineup of EVs for luxury brand Cadillac as well as many models for other brands.
"The story is hybrids are having their moment," said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox director of industry insights, during the Wednesday event.
Cox expects overall U.S. new vehicle sales to be down 3% through the first half of the year compared to last year, including a 0.5% decline during the second quarter. The firm forecasts EV sales down 23.3% during first half this year.
Honda, Volkswagen and Stellantis, however, are expected to post sales gains for the second quarter, while Cox is forecasting the largest sales declines for Tesla, Ford Motor and GM.
