Trade deal key to easing US-India tensions, says analyst Michael Kugelman

New Delhi,UPDATED: Sep 25, 2025 05:49 IST

The India-US relationship may be under strain, but South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman says there’s still a way forward. “The path to any type of reset in this relationship is to have a trade deal,” he told ANI, arguing that ongoing negotiations offer a rare chance to rebuild trust even as tensions run high.

“Even with tensions as high as they’ve been, we have continued to have trade talks in recent days — and there’s no reason to think that those talks are going to stop anytime soon,” Kugelman said.

For Washington and New Delhi, he argued, a deal could be more than economics — it could be a lifeline. “If we do get a trade deal, that would be a big confidence-building measure, would restore some trust in the relationship and it would also reduce what has really been one of the biggest tension points and that’s the very high US tariffs imposed on India,” he said.

#WATCH | New York | On India-US relationship, South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman says, "The path to any type of reset in this relationship, the path to stabilizing this relationship and moving away from the crisis is to have a trade deal and so I think it is significant that pic.twitter.com/24zoR7BOZ3— ANI (@ANI) September 24, 2025

But tariffs aren’t the only sore spot. Kugelman said the steep hike in H-1B visa fees has poured salt in the wound. “This decision is another indication that the relationship is still in a bad state, even after we had that phone call between Trump and Modi,” he explained. The H-1B program, he reminded, has long been the backbone of US-India tech ties and people-to-people links. Higher costs, he warned, risk “a pretty significant blow to US-India tech relations.”

PAKISTAN-SAUDI PACT RESHAPES REGIONAL SECURITY

On regional dynamics, Kugelman turned his gaze to Islamabad and Riyadh. He called the newly minted Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defence pact “a game changer.” While Saudi Arabia won’t jeopardize its friendship with India, he said, “the fact that Pakistan now has a formal institutionalised alliance with Saudi Arabia poses some new challenges for India.” With Pakistan also reviving ties with the US, China, Turkey, and Gulf allies, “it has been able to resurrect and fortify a lot of its alliances,” he said.

#WATCH | New York | On Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defence pact, South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman says, "It's a game changer. I think that it's significant for India in the sense that India has a very close relationship with Saudi Arabia and also, given the history of relations pic.twitter.com/IPYW0QTSyO— ANI (@ANI) September 24, 2025

US-PAKISTAN WARMING ADDS PRESSURE ON INDIA

That revival includes Islamabad’s relationship with Washington, a development that hasn’t gone unnoticed in New Delhi. “This resurgence in US-Pakistan ties has become a tension point in US-India relations, just because there are so many other bad things happening,” Kugelman observed. If Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif follows through on a visit to Washington to meet President Trump, “that would be the latest indication of just how far this relationship has come,” he added.

TRUMP’S UNGA SPEECH: NO RESET IN SIGHT

Kugelman also weighed in on Trump’s performance at the United Nations General Assembly’s 80th session, calling it “extremely undiplomatic seemingly rambling.” What caught his attention most was Trump “once again blaming India for sponsoring Russia’s war in Ukraine.” That swipe, delivered days after a birthday call to Modi, reinforced Kugelman’s bottom line: “We have not yet seen a reset in the US-India relationship.”

#WATCH | New York | On US President Donald Trump's statements during the 80th session of UNGA, South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman says, "...It was extremely undiplomatic. It was a time seemingly rambling. Didn't appear to make much sense. But there were several things that pic.twitter.com/IT8yawGJ36— ANI (@ANI) September 24, 2025

- Ends

With inputs from ANI