17 hours ago
As convincing as the fall on Monday was on the Nifty from the highs, equally unconvincing was the bounce from the lows which followed on Tuesday. Despite a positive handover from Wall Street, a cool-off in the US Dollar, a pause in the crude oil price recovery, the Nifty could not manage to sustain at the highs, and continued to trade in a narrow range, even as it ended in the green.
23,800 yet again proved to be a barrier for the index, as it reversed from the highs of 23,795. Although the Nifty closed above 23,700, it closed nearly 100-points off the day's high and just 70 points off the lows of the day.
In comparison to the Nifty, the broader markets had a fairly decent day, though even they could only recover a small portion of the losses seen across Friday and Monday. The Midcap index ended off the highs of the session, while the Smallcap index gained over a percent. The benchmark screens may suggest otherwise, but there was plenty of stock specific activity that dominated proceedings through Tuesday.
Despite this bounce on Tuesday, the Nifty continues to remain below the 200-Day Moving Average mark, which is placed above the 23,900 level and most analysts on the street continue to maintain that as long as the index trades below this level, the texture of the market remains "sell-on-rise."
ONGCwas among the top performers on the Nifty after CLSA upgraded the stock to a "high conviction outperform." On the flip side, Zomato was among the top F&O losers, after Jefferies downgraded the stock over concerns of rising competition within the Quick Commerce space. The fall in Zomato also took Swiggy's shares lower with it. Newsflow-related moves were also seen in stocks like Zydus Life and Biocon.
From the globe, all eyes are on the FOMC minutes that will be released on Wednesday, the Non-Farm Payrolls data that comes out on Friday along with some big bank earnings. India will begin its Nifty 50 earnings season a day earlier, on January 9, when TCS kickstarts proceedings for largecap IT as well as for the benchmark index. You can read more about the expectations from the IT sector here.
Back home, the market on Wednesday will react to the first advanced GDP estimates for financial year 2025, which were pegged at 6.4%, in line with expectations.
Foreign institutions were net sellers in the cash market on Tuesday, while domestic institutions were net buyers, both in smaller quantities.
"When it comes to the Nifty, I am anticipating the break of the number low of 23,264, if I am not mistaken, it's just a matter of time. The Nifty could meander sideways for a few days or could break down immediately. But if it does bump up little more, it's an opportunity to sell that's my opinion," Jai Bala of cashthechaos.com said.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the short-term trend of the Nifty remains weak with the immediate resistance placed at 23,800. An upside breakout of this level can open up further upside. The December 31 low of 23,460 is an immediate support on the downside, he added.
The one positive takeaway for the bulls, if they would like to call it that, was the fact that the Nifty Bank was back above the 50,000 mark on Tuesday after closing below it a day earlier. However, similar to the Nifty, the Nifty Bank too faced a resistance at its 200-Day Moving Average close to 50,500 and could not sustain at those levels. Holding on to that 50,000 level will be the first task for the bulls during the mid-week trading session.
The Nifty Bank has found support at its 250-Day Simple Moving Average and has formed a bullish harami candlestick pattern on a daily scale, indicating strength. However, the index is still below its recent breakdown point of 50,500 and its 200-DMA near 50,700, said Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates. He said that a sustained break above 50,700 is needed for the Nifty Bank to trigger a strong rebound.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50's January futures added 1.7% or 2.1 lakh shares in Open Interest on Tuesday. They are now trading at a premium of 87.15 points from 105 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's January futures shed 6% or 1.5 lakh shares in Open Interest on Tuesday. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 0.82 from 0.72 earlier.
Bandhan Bank has entered the F&O ban.
Manappuram Finance, RBL Bank and Hindustan Copper remain in the F&O ban.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for January 9 expiry:
For this Thursday's weekly expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 23,700 and 24,000 have seen Open Interest addition.
| Strike | OI Change | Premium |
| 24,000 | 30.1 Lakh Added | 25.75 |
| 23,800 | 19.6 Lakh Added | 78.15 |
| 23,750 | 12.6 Lakh Added | 99.6 |
| 23,700 | 12.1 Lakh Added | 124.3 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for January 9 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 23,200 and 23,700 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's weekly expiry.
| Strike | OI Change | Premium |
| 23,200 | 62.9 Lakh Added | 8.95 |
| 23,700 | 19.6 Lakh Added | 117.15 |
| 23,500 | 16.3 Lakh Added | 47.45 |
| 23,400 | 11.1 Lakh Added | 28.05 |
Fresh long positions were seen in these stocks on Tuesday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| ONGC | 3.72% | 16.97% |
| Oil India | 3.53% | 16.32% |
| Cyient | 4.34% | 13.77% |
| JK Cement | 2.28% | 12.54% |
| Biocon | 6.71% | 12.15% |
Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Tuesday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| PVR Inox | -3.50% | 28.00% |
| Kalyan Jewellers | -4.20% | 13.96% |
| Zomato | -4.64% | 10.35% |
| Varun Beverages | -1.60% | 9.12% |
| Info Edge | -4.11% | 8.03% |
Short covering was seen in these names on Tuesday, meaning an increase in price but a decline in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| KPIT Tech | 2.23% | -4.74% |
| Dr. Lal | 3.03% | -4.70% |
| Syngene | 1.58% | -4.53% |
| Chalbal Fertilisers | 4.34% | -3.44% |
| RBL Bank | 1.33% | -3.26% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Wednesday's trading session:
F&O Changes: NSE to introduce F&O contracts for Castrol India, Gland Pharma, NBCC, Phoenix Mills, Solar Industries and Torrent Power with effect from January 31, 2025.
M&M: Announces prices for top variant of BE 6 and XEV 9e at ₹26.9 lakh and ₹30.5 lakh respectively. Phased test drives to begin from January 14, bookings to begin from February 14 and deliveries to commence from March 2025.
Tata Steel: India production in Q3 up 6.2% to 5.68 MT. Deliveries up 8.4% to 5.29 MT.
Sobha: Total sales value down 28.9% in Q3 to ₹1,388.6 crore. Average price realisations up 16.5% year-on-year to ₹1,366.3 square feet.
Berger Paints: Continue to evaluate inorganic growth opportunities as part of regular course of business but there is no material event at present that warrants a disclosure.
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories: Arm signs agreement with Jaguar Labs Holdings to sell manufacturing facility in Louisiana
RVNL: Signs MoU with Dubai's GBH Contracting LLC to explore business opportunities in the Civil Infra sector in GCC Countries.
Exicom Tele-Systems: Partners with Mufin Green Infra to drive the expansion of EV charging solutions in India.
Tata Technologies: Signs a strategic MoU with Telechips to innovate solutions for next-generation software-defined vehicles.
CESC: Issues LoA to arm Purvah Green Power to set up 150 MW of Wind-Solar Hybrid Power Project. The LoA also includes a greenshoe option to set up an additional 150 MW of Wind-Solar Hybrid Power Project.
Jindal Worldwide: Announces the issue of four bonus shares for every one share held.
