Trade Setup for November 3: Can Nifty bounce back after ending four-week winning run?

17 hours ago

The Indian equity market reversed the gains made in the first three days of last week, as selling pressure in the final two sessions wiped out earlier advances. The benchmark Nifty50 index witnessed profit booking for the second consecutive session on Friday, giving up the 25,800 mark.

Nifty remained weak throughout the day after failing to sustain above 25,950. Bears took control once the index was unable to move decisively past this level.

After opening on a positive note, the market quickly gave up its early gains and slipped into the red during the mid-session. Fresh weakness emerged in the latter half, dragging Nifty to close near the day's low.

The index ended 155 points lower at 25,722. With this decline, Nifty snapped its four-week winning streak, posting a weekly loss of 0.28%.

In a broadly weak market, BEL, Eicher Motors, and Shriram Finance were among the top gainers, while ETERNAL, NTPC, and Cipla came under selling pressure.

Except for the Nifty PSU Bank and Oil & Gas indices, all other sectoral benchmarks closed in the red. Media, Metal, and Healthcare were the worst performers, reflecting a broad-based bearish sentiment.

Broader market indices also saw profit booking in line with the benchmarks. Both the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 ended down around 0.45%.

Looking ahead, analysts expect markets to remain range-bound with a slightly positive bias as investors track global developments, foreign fund flows, and upcoming domestic data.

This week's focus will be on monthly auto sales numbers, a key festive-season indicator, along with quarterly results from SBI, Bharti Airtel, Titan, and Tata Chemicals.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said resilient domestic fundamentals continue to offer support, though external uncertainties may cap near-term upside.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that while the short-term trend of Nifty remains weak, the broader medium-term outlook is still positive. "Any slide below 25,700 could find strong support around 25,500, and there's a higher possibility of a sharp upside bounce from those levels next week," he said.

Rupak De of LKP Securities added that the short-term trend is likely to remain weak, with a potential decline towards 25,525. On the higher side, resistance is seen near 25,850, above which the trend could turn positive.

According to Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking, Nifty once again faced resistance near the 26,000 mark for the second straight week, signaling possible short-term consolidation.

"Immediate support lies near the 21-DMA at 25,500. Despite the pause, the broader trend remains bullish, supporting a buy-on-dips strategy as long as Nifty holds above 25,500. A decisive move above 26,000, where major call writers are active, could trigger the next leg of the rally," he said.

Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty index opened gap-down and stayed under pressure through the session, settling lower at 57,776.

"On the downside, immediate support for Bank Nifty is near 57,630. A firm break below this could extend weakness towards 57,000, while resistance is positioned around 58,580. As long as the index stays below 58,580, traders are advised to book profits on any bounce," said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP–Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates.

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