Trade setup for September 2: Nifty bulls eye 20-DMA but market sentiment still 'sell on rise'

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Nifty rebounds strongly, closes above 24,600 after a three-day losing streak

After showing sharp weakness in the last three sessions, the Nifty staged a strong rebound on Monday, snapping its losing streak and reclaiming the crucial 24,600 mark. The broader NSE frontline index sustained its upside momentum throughout the day, closing with a healthy gain of 198 points at 24,625.

Strong macroeconomic data spurs market rally

Indian equities kicked off September on a bullish note, driven by upbeat macroeconomic data. India’s Q1FY26 GDP growth came in at a robust 7.8%, marking the highest expansion in five quarters and significantly beating consensus estimates of 6.8%. The strong economic print reaffirmed India’s resilience and set a positive tone for market sentiment.

Domestic institutional flows remained steady, providing additional support to the rally. Meanwhile, the US markets were closed for a holiday, limiting global influences.

Broader markets outperform with midcaps and smallcaps leading gains

The broader market outpaced frontline indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 surging 1.97% and 1.57%, respectively, highlighting wider participation across market segments.

Out of the 50 Nifty stocks, 42 closed in positive territory. The rally was led by the Auto and IT sectors, buoyed by strong August sales numbers beating expectations. The Nifty Auto index surged nearly 3%, with top performers including Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, and Eicher Motors. Electric vehicle (EV) makers Ola Electric

and Ather Energy extended gains amid improved monthly registrations. Nifty Consumer Durables also joined the rally, while Nifty Media and Nifty Pharma lagged, closing in the red.

What do the Nifty 50 charts indicate? Market experts weigh in on key technical levels:

Sudeep Shah, SBI Securities: The 24,710-24,740 zone poses a crucial hurdle. A sustained breakout above 24,740 could extend the rally towards 24,900. On the downside, support lies at 24,500-24,470, with a break below risking a slide to 24,200.

Nagaraj Shetti, HDFC Securities: The short-term trend has reversed upward. A follow-through above 24,700 could push Nifty to 25,000, while failure to hold gains may trigger a pullback to 24,300-24,200.

Rupak De, LKP Securities: The index shows strong recovery and hidden positive divergence on hourly RSI, but sentiment remains cautious with “sell on rise” below 24,850. A breakout above 24,850 could spark a rally to 25,250-25,500. Support is at 24,500.

Nilesh Jain, Centrum Broking: Nifty is not fully out of danger yet. Below 25,000, pullbacks could continue to face selling pressure.

What do the Bank Nifty charts indicate?

After five consecutive sessions of losses, Bank Nifty staged a recovery, closing above the 54,000 mark with a 0.65% gain. The bounce indicates a short-term relief rally driven by selective buying in banking heavyweights.

Sudeep Shah, SBI Securities: Resistance lies between 54,300 and 54,400, with a break above 54,400 potentially extending gains to 54,900. On the downside, strong support is at 53,600-53,500, near the 200-day EMA.

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