Trump’s ‘One-Sided’ Trade Claim On India Doesn’t Match Reality. Here’s Why

Last Updated:September 03, 2025, 00:05 IST

If tariffs were purely about fixing America’s biggest deficits, China, Mexico, and the EU would be the main targets. Yet, Trump often singles out India

Tariffs on India are more political than economic. They serve a campaign narrative rather than address the root causes of the US deficit.

Donald Trump has once again taken aim at India, calling the country’s trade relationship with the United States “a totally one-sided disaster". In a post on Truth Social, the US President claimed that India sells “massive amounts of goods" to the United States while buying “very little" in return, justifying his push for higher tariffs.

However, when one digs into the numbers, the story looks very different.

The US goods trade deficit hit a record $1.2 trillion in 2024. Here’s how America’s biggest imbalances stack up:

US Trade Deficit by Country (2024, Goods Only):

China: ~$270B

European Union: ~$236B

Mexico: ~$157B

Vietnam: ~$113B

Canada: ~$55B

India: $41.5B

India’s deficit is among the lowest of America’s major partners. By contrast, China’s imbalance is nearly seven times higher.

What About Tariffs?

Trump is not wrong that India historically imposed higher tariffs—especially on automobiles, agriculture, and electronics. But this argument overlooks two realities:

One, India is not unique. Many economies, including China, Brazil, and the EU, use high tariffs or non-tariff barriers.

Second, India has been opening up. In recent years, tariffs have been reduced on energy imports, ICT products, and defence procurement—sectors where US firms are expanding.

US Exports to India Are Rising

Far from being “totally one-sided", trade flows are becoming more balanced. US exports of LNG, crude oil, aircraft, machinery, and defence equipment to India are rising. Apart from this, India is now one of the fastest-growing US export markets.

Washington is also increasingly gaining from India’s growing demand for advanced technology and energy supplies.

Why Single Out India?

If tariffs were purely about fixing America’s biggest deficits, China, Mexico, and the EU would be the main targets. Yet, Trump often singles out India.

India is not America’s biggest trade problem. Its $41.5B deficit is modest compared to China, Mexico, or Vietnam.

Clearly, tariffs on India are more political than economic. They serve a campaign narrative rather than address the root causes of the US deficit.

The real story is that US–India trade is expanding in both directions, with more opportunities for American businesses than ever before and calling India the “biggest beneficiary" of US trade is misleading.

This was also echoed by Dr Brahma Chellaney, professor and strategic affairs expert, who accused the US President of attacking India “with falsehoods and distortions". In a post on X, Chellaney said: “After setting loose his attack dogs—Scott Bessent, Peter Navarro and Kevin Hassett—on India, Trump has now turned his fire directly on New Delhi in a Truth Social post packed with falsehoods and distortions."

Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal, too, accused Trump of being “economical with truth and trading in falsities". Sibal, on X, shared data of other countries’ deficit with the US which is much higher than India’s and added: “The claim that we have offered to reduce our tariffs to nothing is true of some products but our redlines are firm."

Self-Inflicted Damage?

News18 had reported earlier how higher tariffs on India would hurt American consumers, businesses, and universities—the same groups Trump claims to protect.

The most immediate impact of the 50 per cent duty is expected to be a rise in prices across a broad spectrum of everyday products. Key Indian exports to the US—including auto parts, IT hardware, textiles, and industrial chemicals—are widely used in American manufacturing and retail sectors, making cost increases likely across the supply chain.

India serves not only as a source of finished products but also as a key supplier of intermediate goods such as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), specialty chemicals, and software services. US companies depend significantly on Indian partners for manufacturing inputs, IT services, and backend operations and the tariffs have now injected significant uncertainty into these supply chains.

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