Trump's tariff war could push India into China's arms

UPDATED: Dec 11, 2025 18:51 IST

The United States and India, two democracies with deeply intertwined destinies in the Indo-Pacific, are facing the most volatile stretch in their partnership yet. At the heart of the storm is President Donald Trump, whose aggressive stance on trade, tariffs and visas has both Democrats and Republicans in Washington sounding alarms.

At a recent congressional hearing, Representative Sydney Kamlager Dove issued a stark warning that Trump could become the president who lost India. The concern is real. Trump has imposed 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25 percent penalty specifically targeting Russian oil purchases. He's introduced a staggering one hundred thousand dollar fee for H1B visas, directly hitting Indian professionals who comprise up to 75 percent of recipients.

These aren't abstract policy moves. They target real sectors where India leads globally: agriculture, textiles, gems, jewellery and rice exports. Trump's claims that India is dumping cheap rice ignore basic trade realities. India exports 150 million tonnes of rice annually, mostly premium basmati varieties, whilst the US produces only 7 million tonnes. The accusation doesn't match the economics.

Congresspeople from both parties emphasise that India is central to maintaining a free Indo-Pacific, countering authoritarianism and ensuring resilient supply chains. Yet Trump's punitive measures risk pushing New Delhi towards the very nations Washington sees as rivals.

The symbolism became unmistakable at the Tianjin SCO summit, where Modi appeared alongside Putin and Xi Jinping. Trump's reaction on Truth Social, calling it a snub and declaring the US had lost India, revealed how American policy is being interpreted abroad. For India, the photo represented strategic autonomy. For Washington, it looked like the consequence of tariff tyranny and visa aggression.

Lawmakers warn that mishandling India risks eroding a pillar of US influence, with stakes extending far beyond trade to defence cooperation, technological collaboration and geopolitical balance. The question now is whether Washington's short-term political calculus is sacrificing decades of alliance building, inadvertently accelerating the multipolar alignment it seeks to prevent.

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