3 weeks ago
Last Updated:October 29, 2024, 13:56 IST
Christophe Barraud has based his forecast on various metrics, including betting odds, poll analyses and financial market signals
Trump has nearly erased Democrats' longstanding advantage among Hispanic men ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election when he will face Harris. (Getty Images)
The “world’s most accurate economist” has predicted an election day win for former US president Donald Trump, with Republicans predicted to take back control in a clean sweep.
Christophe Barraud, who has been ranked the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy by Bloomberg every year since 2012, said US growth would accelerate after the elections.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: #Trump victory, GOP clean sweep,” Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at the Market Securities Monaco, said in a post on X.
Trump Vs Kamala
Barraud warned that if US Vice President Kamala Harris gets elected with a split Congress, yields could drop because the market has already been priced in a Republican win. It would correct down, he was quoted as saying by Fox News.
This comes as Trump has nearly erased Democrats’ longstanding advantage among Hispanic men ahead of the November 5 presidential election when he will face Democrat Kamala Harris, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling.
Trump now trails Vice President Harris by just 2 percentage points among Hispanic men – 44% to 46% – compared with his 19-point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden at the same point in 2020, according to the analysis of more than 15,000 responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in the month through Oct. 21 and during the same period of 2020.
Trump’s gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favored him over Biden by 12 points late in 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. The two candidates are locked in an exceptionally tight race, with Harris up only marginally – 46% to 43% – in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-21.
Longstanding edge
The shifts are part of larger changes in the coalitions that each candidate is counting on for victory, with Trump boosting his advantage with Hispanic and Black voters – particularly men – while Harris has cut away at the Republicans’ longstanding edge with white voters by gaining ground with women.
The analysis of recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump with support from 37% of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30% at the same point in 2020. Harris is at 51% compared to Biden’s 54% four years earlier. The numbers are subject to sampling error, and have levels of precision of between 2 and 6 percentage points.
Trump ended up winning 38% of the Hispanic votes in 2020, 21 points below Biden but still the biggest share for a Republican candidate since President George W. Bush won 44% in 2004, according to a 2020 exit poll analysis by the Pew Research Center and historical figures compiled by the American Enterprise Institute.
(With agency inputs)
Location :Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)
First Published:October 29, 2024, 13:56 IST
News world Trump Vs Harris: 'World's Most Accurate Economist' Picks His Clear Favourite In US Election
