Turkey's Quiet Play: How Ankara & Pakistan Are Bleeding Gulf Power Without A Direct Fight | Exclusive

Last Updated:January 27, 2026, 15:16 IST

Ankara has benefited from instability around the Bab-el-Mandeb strait through which an estimated 12–15% of global trade and nearly 30% of container traffic bound for Europe passes

The approach relies on leveraging instability, ideological networks and strategic partnerships---particularly with Pakistan---to erode Gulf influence over time. (iStock)

Turkey is pursuing a calibrated strategy to gradually weaken Gulf dominance in the Middle East by exploiting regional fault lines rather than confronting Saudi Arabia and the UAE directly, top intelligence sources have told CNN-News18. The approach, officials say, relies on leveraging instability, ideological networks and strategic partnerships—particularly with Pakistan—to erode Gulf influence over time.

According to intelligence assessments, Ankara has quietly benefited from prolonged instability around the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a critical maritime chokepoint through which an estimated 12–15 per cent of global trade and nearly 30 per cent of container traffic bound for Europe passes. Any disruption in this corridor disproportionately affects Saudi and Emirati port ambitions, especially hubs such as Jebel Ali and Fujairah, while Turkey positions itself diplomatically as a mediator rather than a direct participant in the conflict.

Sources stressed that Turkey does not directly support the Houthis in Yemen. Instead, Ankara engages with Muslim Brotherhood-aligned Yemeni factions, subtly weakening Saudi-backed political structures. This mirrors Turkey’s earlier playbook in Libya and Sudan, where it supported political Islamist groups to dilute Gulf influence without deploying its own troops.

At the same time, Turkish media outlets and NGOs have amplified humanitarian narratives around Yemen, projecting soft power while framing Saudi-UAE intervention as destructive. Intelligence officials say this messaging campaign has helped Ankara gain diplomatic leverage without overt military involvement.

A key pillar of Turkey’s strategy is its deepening alignment with Pakistan. Ankara has increasingly used Pakistan’s military and diplomatic clout in the Islamic world to internationalise Turkish positions. Joint statements at OIC platforms, as well as on issues such as Gaza and Yemen, often echo Turkish talking points more closely than Gulf positions, sources said.

Pakistan’s armed forces are now structurally tied to Turkey’s defence ecosystem, with an estimated $1.5-2 billion worth of defence deals since 2018, including MILGEM corvettes, Bayraktar TB-2 drones and helicopter engine collaborations. Pakistani military officers are also increasingly training in Turkey rather than in Gulf countries, signalling a shift in long-term institutional alignment.

Intelligence inputs further suggest that Turkey has encouraged Pakistan to diversify away from Gulf labour markets and remittance dependence, which currently account for $30–35 billion annually from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Ankara has also used Pakistan’s clerical and religious networks to challenge Saudi Arabia’s claim to uncontested leadership of the Islamic world.

Officials point out that whenever Saudi Arabia or the UAE have attempted to discipline Pakistan, through financial pressure, oil supply leverage or IMF signalling, Turkey has stepped in to cushion Islamabad, reducing its dependence on Gulf capitals.

In parallel, China-backed infrastructure such as Gwadar port is gradually reducing Pakistan’s reliance on Gulf maritime routes. Turkey is seen as aligning with this multipolar logistics vision, which, over time, weakens Gulf maritime centrality.

Why It Matters for India

Intelligence agencies underline that this is not merely a Middle East power struggle for India. More than 60 per cent of India’s westbound trade passes through the Red Sea–Suez corridor, making New Delhi vulnerable to any instability linked to Yemen. Rising insurance premiums, rerouting costs and energy price volatility indirectly affect India’s economy.

Additionally, Turkey’s backing provides Pakistan with strategic breathing space at moments of heightened Gulf pressure. Officials warn that the growing Turkey-Pakistan ideological alignment also fuels narratives hostile to India, which can spill into South Asian discourse, including on Kashmir.

From New Delhi’s perspective, intelligence sources say, Ankara’s strategy represents a slow-burn challenge—one that reshapes regional power balances without open confrontation, but with long-term consequences for trade, energy security and geopolitics.

News world Turkey's Quiet Play: How Ankara & Pakistan Are Bleeding Gulf Power Without A Direct Fight | Exclusive

Read More