US think tank warns India, Pakistan & Afghanistan clashes likely next year

Disputes between India and Pakistan have the chances of developing into an armed conflict in 2026, according to a report by a US think tank that surveyed American foreign policy experts. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) dubbed the chances of armed conflict as "moderate likelihood" that it could have a "moderate impact" on American interests.

There is a "moderate likelihood" of a "renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity", says CFR in its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report.

India and Pakistan were engaged in a four-day mini-war in May that saw a series of drone and missile attacks and counter-attacks. That came after India launched Operation Sindoor to destroy terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) after Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed 22 civilians in Pahalgam.

Though Pakistan called for a ceasefire, there have been provocative statements by its leadership. Though there has been no major terror strike in Jammu and Kashmir since then, intel inputs suggested over 30 Pakistani terrorists were operating in the Jammu region this winter.

The CFR report also points to another Pakistani flashpoint. It says there is a "moderate likelihood" of an armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026. It, however, says that such a conflict would be of "low impact" to American interests.

There is a moderate likelihood of "renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks", according to the CFR's Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report.

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