Venezuela Op short-term win for Trump, will hurt US in long run: Ian Bremmer

New Delhi,UPDATED: Jan 6, 2026 20:24 IST

The US operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may deliver a quick political boost to President Donald Trump, but it risks seriously undermining America’s global standing over time, geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer warned.

In an interview with India Today TV, Bremmer said the January 3 raid in Caracas reflects what he calls a “G-Zero world” — a phase marked by the absence of global leadership and the United States “walking away from its own previous global order.”

“This is the United States changing the rules of the road internationally,” Bremmer said, arguing that Washington is embracing “the law of the jungle,” where raw power matters more than shared rules, alliances or institutions. He added that the Venezuela operation is “not the only incident that we are going to see.”

Bremmer, who heads political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, stressed that Trump is “not the cause” of this shift but “a symptom” and “an accelerant” of trends that have been building for more than a decade. He said he first warned in 2012 of a world moving away from G7 or G20-style leadership towards a vacuum at the top.

POWER OVER RULES

While Bremmer drew a distinction between the Venezuela operation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said the U.S. action still raises serious questions about America’s claims of defending a rules-based order. He noted that the military operation was not discussed in advance with allies or with Congress, and that there is “a lot of opposition” both inside and outside the United States.

Yet, he pointed out, global pushback has been muted. Countries once considered Venezuela’s friends — including Russia, China and Iran — “haven’t done anything” in response, while European allies, though uneasy about Trump’s broader foreign policy signals, have largely held back from openly criticising Washington.

“All of that is about power,” Bremmer told India Today TV, pointing to America’s unmatched ability and willingness to project military force.

SHORT-TERM GAIN, LONG-TERM COST

Bremmer described the Venezuelan episode as “a short term tactical win for Trump” that “long term undermines America’s position.” He warned that the United States benefits more than most from rule of law, reliable alliances and institutional checks and balances — all of which are weakened when Washington itself sidelines them.

“The fact that the United States is undoing an order that benefits countries like the US,” he said, “is going to cause a lot of damage to America’s role in the world.”

At the same time, Bremmer cautioned against assuming that U.S. behaviour alone will embolden Russia or China to launch new cross-border actions. He argued that Moscow and Beijing act primarily based on their own calculations of power and risk, not moral justifications drawn from US precedent.

‘REGIME ROULETTE’

When asked about Trump’s remarks that the US would “run Venezuela”, Bremmer said such claims were being overstated. “Trump says a lot of things,” he remarked, adding that there is no plan for a U.S. official to govern the country.

“I call it regime roulette,” Bremmer said. “You spin the wheel and you see what the next regime is, because it looks a lot like the old regime.”

He said Washington’s real message is that any future Venezuelan leadership will have to comply with US demands, from cutting ties with Russia and Iran to offering preferred access to oil and minerals — or face pressure. But he underlined that this is “a belief without a plan.”

With Venezuela currently producing only about 800,000 barrels of oil a day, far below past levels, Bremmer said major investment would require long-term political stability, something oil companies may doubt given Trump’s limited remaining time in office.

“I wouldn’t run to the bank with promises of that oil,” he warned.

- Ends