Will UAE join the US-Iran war soon?

Around 1,000 km away from Iran, the UAE has found itself on the front line of the conflict. In the last three weeks, Iran has launched over 2,200 missiles and drones towards the UAE -- more than at any other country. However, the UAE's air defence systems have intercepted over 95% of the attacks. UAE's patience is now wearing thin, and it has indicated that it might join the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, as per a Wall Street Journal report.

The speculation of the Emirates joining the war has gained ground amid fervent chatter of US President Donald Trump planning a ground invasion to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's chokehold of the strait, through which a fifth of the world's energy passes, has sent oil prices spiralling. Even though Trump has announced a pause in strikes on Iran's power plants till April 6, there are murmurs that he is actively weighing whether to use ground troops to seize strategic islands near Hormuz.

IRAN GROUND OFFENSIVE FROM UAE?

Iran suspects that such a ground offensive could be launched from the UAE. A senior Iranian official told Middle East Eye that Tehran had intel, supported by information from Russia, that a ground assault could be launched from the UAE.

In recent days, the war drums have gotten louder in the UAE. Recently, its ambassador to the US told the WSJ that a ceasefire would not be enough and there should be a push for a "conclusive outcome".

Even Emirati strategists and authors have rallied behind. "The UAE stands as a strong partner of the US. No ceasefire with the Islamic regime in Iran. Not now. You don't negotiate with terror. You end it," tweeted expert and author Amjad Taha.

It is well known that Iran and the UAE historically have fraught ties. On the other hand, the UAE has emerged as one of Israel's close allies since the 2020 Abraham Accords. The countries have since intensified cooperation in trade, technology, and defence.

IRAN-UAE TIES

However, much of the bad blood between the UAE and Iran is due to longstanding territorial disputes.

The strategic islands of Abu Musa and Tunb, located near the Strait of Hormuz, were occupied by Iran in 1971, shortly before the UAE's formation. The islands remain under Iran's control. This has long been an irritant in UAE-Iran ties.

And now, Iran is wary of the UAE using the conflict to occupy the islands. Recently, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf tweeted that intelligence suggested Tehran's enemies, with the "support of a country in the region", were preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran's islands.

"All enemy movements are under the surveillance of our armed forces. If they take any action, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will face relentless attacks," he further said.

Experts were quick to conclude that Ghalibaf was likely alluding to the UAE and its claim to the island of Abu Musa.

On Friday, Iran also released a "target list" of energy infrastructure within the UAE that might be attacked if the country supported any US ground operation on Kharg Island, a critical oil hub, or any other Iranian island. These include desalination plants, nuclear power plants, and other energy infrastructure across the UAE.

If the UAE eventually decides to join the war, it would have consequences for India as well. Around 4.5 million Indians reside in the UAE, constituting nearly 40% of its population. Given India's strategic ties with the UAE, New Delhi would not want it to enter into a full-blown conflict.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with the UAE President, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to convey solidarity amid Iran's strikes, and thanked him for taking care of the Indian diaspora.

WHY UAE HAS COME INTO IRAN'S CROSSHAIRS?

But why has the UAE suddenly come into Iran's crosshairs?

Behind it is the Iranian assessment that the UAE likely played an active part in the war from the beginning, which has wiped out Tehran's top leadership and left over 3,000 people dead.

An Iranian security official underscored that Tehran ended its restraint towards Abu Dhabi after concluding that its role in the current war went beyond hosting US military bases. In recent days, Iran has pounded the Al Dhafra Air Base, a critical US airbase that it shares with the UAE.

Apart from the airbase, airports in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, residential buildings, hotels, the Jebel Ali port and the US consulate in Dubai have all been targeted. However, most of the missiles have been intercepted.

The Iranian official told Middle East Eye that the UAE might have allowed its air facilities to be used for operations. "Abu Dhabi has also served as an advanced platform for Israeli interests in the region," he said.

Another assessment by Iran is that the UAE might have engaged in "deception operations" or false-flag attacks on Oman and at least another country to blame Tehran.

The official also emphasised that the UAE might have used its advanced AI systems to aid the US and Israel in gathering and analysing data on Iranian personnel and key sites for attacks. Tehran also suspects that some attacks on Iranian vessels were launched from UAE territory.

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