Xi lands in US. Since his last visit, equation has changed. It went China's way

US President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, quite literally, as the two leaders began a three-day summit in Washington at a moment when the balance of power between the world's two biggest economies looks very different from their last face-to-face meeting in the United States.

Xi's arrival at Joint Base Andrews was marked by the kind of ceremony usually reserved for the most consequential state visits. A giant red carpet stretched from the bottom of the red stairs of his aircraft. A 21-person honour cordon stood ready as a salute from battery guns rang out, while two B-1 bombers flew overhead.

Trump and first lady Melania Trump also broke with protocol by travelling to the Maryland military base to personally receive Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan. The national anthems of China and the US were played during the ceremony, which clearly shows the importance Washington attaches to Xi's first visit to the US in nearly three years.

The welcome was striking for another reason. It was the first time in 11 years that a US President had personally received a foreign leader at Joint Base Andrews. Xi's arrival also sets the stage for the second state dinner of Trump's second presidency, following the one held for Britain's King Charles III and Queen Camilla.

But behind the pomp, the symbolism is harder to miss.

When Xi last met Trump in the US in 2017, the Chinese leader arrived at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort from a markedly weaker position. China was already an economic giant, but it was still more dependent on American technology, consumers and global markets.

The years since have changed that equation.

China now arrives in Washington with a far stronger hand in technology, manufacturing, critical supply chains and global diplomacy. The US remains the world's dominant economic and military superpower, but Beijing has built enough leverage of its own to make the relationship far more reciprocal.

And that is the big story of Xi's Washington visit.

CHINA IS TECH POWERHOUSE NOW

Over the past decade, China has poured enormous resources into building technological capabilities that were once dominated by Western companies. Chinese companies are now competing in artificial intelligence, robotics, electric vehicles, renewable energy, memory chips, biotechnology and space technology.

Domestic AI developers have pushed their models closer to the frontier set by Silicon Valley. Chinese space companies are working on reusable rockets, and companies across the energy, semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors have produced blockbuster stock market listings.

China's manufacturing base has also made it an economic power. Its trade surplus reached about 1.2 trillion dollar last year, which was fuelled partly by strong exports of electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and other manufactured goods.

But perhaps China's most important advantage for the current negotiations lies in something less visible to ordinary consumers: its control over critical supply chains.

Rare earths are the clearest example.

These minerals are essential for everything from electronics and electric vehicles to defence equipment. Beijing's ability to restrict their exports has given China a powerful lever in its economic confrontation with Washington.

That leverage was on display during the latest round of the US-China trade war. When Washington moved towards expanding restrictions on Chinese companies, Beijing threatened a major expansion of export controls on strategically important rare earths.

The result was a truce rather than a complete economic rupture. That experience has left both sides aware of the risks of pushing the other too far.

CHINA DOESN'T NEED US THE WAY IT ONCE DID

For Xi, perhaps the biggest change since 2017 was not simply that China has become stronger in certain industries. It was that Beijing spent decades deliberately reducing its dependence on the US. Tariffs and technology restrictions imposed during Trump's administration first term accelerated that effort.

Beijing responded by directing huge amounts of financing and support towards domestic alternatives in strategic industries. The goal was straightforward: if American technology could be restricted, China needed its own.

Access to advanced chips has become one of the biggest constraints on China's AI ambitions. Any progress in designing and producing its own chips therefore carries strategic importance for Beijing. China's technological confidence is also visible in how its public views AI.

There are concerns about job losses and disruption, but there is also a sense that AI could create opportunities and that China's secure infrastructure can manage the risks.

That contrasts with a more cautious debate in the US, where concerns over AI safety and its impact on employment have become increasingly prominent, especially after OpenAI's hugging face incident.

Trump, meanwhile, has cleared that the US cannot slow its AI development because it needs to stay ahead of China. That makes technology one of the most important issues on the table in Washington.

XI WANTS LESS US RESTRICTIONS

The objective for Xi's delegation is not necessarily to persuade Washington to abandon competition with China. It is to prevent that competition from becoming so aggressive that it damages China's ability to develop.

Beijing wants greater predictability in its economic and technology relationship with Washington. Chinese officials also want safeguards against disputes over Taiwan and technology controls spilling into the broader relationship.

That does not mean Xi arrives in Washington without problems.

China's economy is facing significant domestic pressures. Youth unemployment recently reached a high, consumption remains weaker than Beijing would like, local governments are struggling with debt and the country's prolonged property crisis continues to weigh on the economy.

Millions of workers also depend on the gig economy for their livelihoods. So while China's technological rise has become a source of national pride, it has not erased the economic difficulties facing ordinary Chinese citizens.

REASONS TO STEP BACK?

The economic relationship has reached a point where neither side can easily impose its will without paying a price.

China is a crucial part of global manufacturing and supply chains for the US, while Washington is an enormous market and a big source of technology, investment and global financial influence. Neither side wants to return to the brink of the kind of economic decoupling that threatened to separate the two economies.

But Xi is also making clear that China's relationship with America cannot come at the expense of what Beijing considers its core interests.

In a bullish editorial published by China's People's Daily, Chinese ambassador to the US Xie Feng described Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China's political system and its right to development as "red lines".

"China's sovereignty, security, and development interests must not be violated. The four red lines concerning the Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, China's political system and development path, and its right to development must not be challenged," Xie wrote, as per CNN.

This clearly indicates Beijing wants stability, but it does not intend to negotiate away issues it considers fundamental.

XI'S CHINA IS ALSO MORE GLOBAL

There is another major difference between 2017 and today.

China's influence is no longer confined to trade. Chinese electric vehicles are being sold around the world. Chinese AI models are being used by businesses. Chinese consumer products have become global phenomena.

China has also become more active diplomatically. Xi has recently travelled across regions where Beijing is seeking to strengthen its influence and present China as an alternative centre of global leadership.

At a BRICS summit in New Delhi earlier this month, he promoted cooperation on smart factories and AI development. During a visit to Egypt, he proposed a "new security architecture" for the Middle East that would not depend entirely on the US security umbrella.

More countries are also seeking closer ties with Beijing, giving Xi confidence as he enters negotiations with Trump.

IRAN PUTS ANOTHER LEVER ON THE TABLE

The changing balance could become particularly important when Trump and Xi discuss Iran.

Washington has been pressuring countries that continue doing business with Tehran and has threatened sanctions against entities that support Iran's economy.

China, as Iran's biggest trading partner, is directly exposed to that pressure.

But Beijing also has something Washington wants: access to Tehran.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in Beijing last week. According to Wu Xinbo, part of the purpose of those talks was to clarify issues before Xi and Trump discussed Iran. That gives Beijing a different role. China can communicate with both Washington and Tehran at a time when the US is struggling to end the conflict.

JOHN BOLTON SETS LOW BAR FOR XI-TRUMP SUMMIT

Former US national security adviser John Bolton, speaking to ANI on Wednesday, struck a far more sceptical note about what the summit can deliver.

Bolton said Trump tends to view foreign relations through his personal relationships with leaders, which he said is a mistake when dealing with leaders such as Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Trump believes that US relations with other countries are seen largely through the prism of his personal relationship with foreign leaders, which is a big mistake when dealing with hard men like Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin. They don't allow their feelings about a foreign leader to get in the way of pursuing their respective national interests. Trump thrives on pomp and circumstance," he said.

Bolton said he expected the summit to generate considerable ceremony but questioned whether it would produce major agreements.

"That is mostly what this summit is going to be. I would be surprised at this point if anything really significant came out of it from a substantive point of view. Much of the world is interested in what they say to each other about artificial intelligence, which Trump renamed yesterday as 'super intelligence.' I don't think much will come out of that. The bar is pretty low here for what the outcomes might be," he added.

Calling it a successful outcome if US-China relations simply avoid further deterioration, Bolton argued that the groundwork for major agreements did not appear to have been laid. He also pointed to reports that a Chinese business delegation expected to accompany Xi was no longer travelling with him, while acknowledging that this did not necessarily rule out the possibility of business deals being announced.

"I just don't see that the groundwork has been laid for agreements on any significant issue," he said.

For all the ceremony surrounding Xi's arrival, that may matter most at the summit.

The two leaders are meeting with their countries still locked in competition over trade, technology, strategic influence and global security. But unlike 2017, China enters the room with more technological capabilities, more control over critical supply chains, greater diplomatic reach and more alternatives to dependence on the United States.

The red carpet may look familiar. The balance of leverage underneath it does not.

- Ends