Arms Race, Terror Triggers: 2026 May See India-Pakistan Conflict, Warns US Think Tank

Last Updated:December 31, 2025, 05:37 IST

The survey identifies a secondary flashpoint: the Afghanistan-Pakistan border

Operation Sindoor was launched on May 7 in response to the April 22 Pahalgam attack, targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. (File image: Sourced)

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a prominent New York-based think tank, has warned of a “moderate likelihood" that disputes between India and Pakistan could escalate into a full-scale armed conflict in 2026. The findings, published in the eighteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey, reflect the growing concern among American foreign policy experts regarding the fragility of the current ceasefire between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

The Shadow of 2025: Operation Sindoor

The report’s projections are heavily influenced by the high-intensity military escalation that occurred earlier this year. In May 2025, India and Pakistan engaged in a four-day “mini-war"—the most serious conventional clash since the 1999 Kargil War. The conflict was triggered by a major terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which claimed the lives of 26 people. In a swift retaliatory move, New Delhi launched Operation Sindoor, utilising drone swarms and precision missile strikes to dismantle terror infrastructure across the Line of Control (LoC) and deep within Pakistani territory.

While a ceasefire was eventually established, the CFR report notes that the underlying triggers remain active. Experts surveyed by the think tank highlighted that “heightened terrorist activity" and the potential for domestic political instability in either nation could serve as a “Tier II" contingency—meaning it has a moderate likelihood of occurring but would have a high impact on United States interests.

An Accelerating Arms Race

The think tank also pointed to a concerning post-ceasefire trend: a rapid acceleration in defence procurement. Despite the pause in active hostilities, the Indian Defence Acquisition Council recently cleared a massive Rs 79,000 crore package to bolster its “kill-chain" capabilities, including advanced loitering munitions and air-to-air missiles. Simultaneously, Islamabad has entered into high-level negotiations with Turkey and China to acquire sophisticated air defence systems to plug the vulnerabilities exposed during Operation Sindoor.

The Multi-Front Risk

Crucially, the 2026 survey identifies a secondary flashpoint: the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. For the first time, experts have ranked a potential armed conflict between the Taliban and Islamabad as a “moderate likelihood". The CFR warns that should Pakistan become embroiled in a two-front crisis—facing a resurgent Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on its western border while maintaining a standoff with India—the risk of a miscalculation leading to a wider regional conflagration increases exponentially.

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