Balance of power is...: Elon Musk as IMF puts India ahead of US in global growth

Citing the latest data from the Monetary Fund (IMF) on countries driving global growth -- which places India among the top contributors, ahead of the United States -- billionaire businessman Elon Musk said the “balance of power is changing”.

He shared a chart, said to be based on the IMF’s January 2026 projections, ranking the top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026.

The chart shows that China and India together are projected to account for 43.6 per cent of global economic growth this year, with India alone contributing 17 per cent. The United States, by comparison, is expected to contribute 9.9 per cent.

Musk’s remarks come against the backdrop of global economic instability and heightened trade tensions, including steep tariff measures announced by US President Donald Trump targeting countries such as China and India. The chart he shared underscores what appears to be an eastward shift in global economic power.

According to the IMF, global growth is projected at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, slightly higher than the October 2025 outlook. The report attributes the improved outlook to strong technology investment, fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions, and private sector resilience, which have helped offset the impact of trade policy shifts.

Global inflation is expected to ease, though inflation in the United States is likely to return to target more gradually. Key downside risks include a reassessment of technology-driven growth expectations and an escalation of geopolitical tensions.

For India specifically, growth has been revised upward by 0.7 percentage points to 7.3 per cent for 2025, reflecting a better-than-expected third quarter and strong momentum in the fourth quarter. Growth is projected to moderate to 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027 as cyclical and temporary factors fade.

The report also notes that while inflation in China is expected to rise gradually from low levels, inflation in India is likely to return close to target after a sharp decline in 2025, driven by subdued food prices.

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