Bangladesh PM visited China but likely to skip India. Hasina casting a shadow?

Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who flew to China in June months after taking office, is unlikely to attend the upcoming Brics Summit in New Delhi in September, Dhaka-based newspaper Prothom Alo reported. The development comes amid tensions between India and Bangladesh over former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's first public address, which took place last week.

The report came even as India's newly appointed High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, met PM Rahman for the first time on Monday as part of a "courtesy call", according to the Ministry of External Affairs. Also on Monday, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief Parag Jain met Bangladesh PM's Defence Affairs Advisor Brig Gen AKM Shamsul Islam (Retired) in Dhaka.

Rahman in June had flown to Malaysia for his first foreign visit as the PM of Bangladesh. From Kuala Lumpur, Rahman flew to China as the second foreign nation he visited. Rahman also met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Great Hall of the People. While Bangladeshi prime ministers have traditionally performed a diplomatic balancing act by choosing countries such as India, China or Saudi Arabia for their first foreign visits, Rahman chose Malaysia, signalling a middle path.

India, for its part, has engaged Rahman bilaterally, inviting him to visit New Delhi during the BNP leaders swearing-in ceremony (for the first time). New Delhi was represented by Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla at Rahman's inauguration. However, the outreach session of the Brics Summit is a meeting of a multilateral grouping, which Rahman is likely to skip, according to reports.

India is hosting the annual BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13. Bangladesh is not a member of the Brics, but has expressed interest in joining the grouping since 2023.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman on Monday said that the Indian and the Bangladeshi sides "briefly discussed several bilateral issues", including the extradition of Sheikh Hasina and the return of suspects accused of killing Inquilab Moncho spokesperson Sharif Osman Hadi, during the meeting, Dhaka-based The Daily Star reported.

Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo, citing multiple senior Bangladesh government sources, repoorted that amid "the recent developments", the possibility of Rahman attending the Brics outreach session had "effectively disappeared".

WHY HAS THERE BEEN A FLARE UP IN TENSIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND BANGLADESH?

On August 5, former Bangladesh PM, Sheikh Hasina made her first public address in two years at a virtual press conference in New Delhi, after the 2024 student-led protests ousted her Awami League government and forced her to seek refuge in India. During the address, Hasina said she planned to return to Bangladesh in December, coinciding with the anniversary of the 1971 Liberation War.

The Tarique Rahman-led BNP government, which took office after February’s elections, has repeatedly demanded Hasina's extradition and urged India not to allow her to use its territory for political activities or statements that could destabilise Bangladesh.

Ahead of the Delhi event, Bangladesh PM's Information and Broadcasting Adviser Zahed Ur Rahman warned local media outlets against publishing or broadcasting Hasina’s remarks, while Foreign Affairs Adviser to the PM, Humayun Kabir, urged India to ensure that Hasina was not given a platform to make political statements.

The August 5 press conference nevertheless went ahead without a hitch. While New Delhi has maintained that the event was organised by a private organisation and that India did not endorse Hasina’s remarks, it triggered a strong reaction in Dhaka.

Immediately after the address, Bangladesh's Foreign Ministry described the event as "an affront to the sovereignty of Bangladesh", saying India's decision to allow Hasina to interact live with the media had damaged bilateral ties and insulted those killed in the 2024 protests. It also accused Hasina of using the platform to direct "venomous vitriol" at Bangladesh and its people.

Bangladesh Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed subsequently warned that if India allows Hasina to conduct political activities from its soil, New Delhi would have to rethink its friendly relations with Dhaka.

"You will play the Hasina card and want friendly relations with Bangladesh; remember, the two are opposites. I hope the Indian authorities and the Indian government will understand," Prothom Alo quoted him as saying.

Adding to Dhaka’s frustration, Prothom Alo reported that India had assured Bangladeshi officials before the event that only a recorded statement by Hasina would be played and that media access would be restricted. Instead, the August 5 event featured a live address and was attended by journalists from around the world, including one from Bangladesh.

However, India's Ministry of External Affairs said that the Government of India had no role in a media interaction featuring Hasina and added that it did not endorse the remarks made during the event.

HASINA FACTOR TO MAKE TARIQUE RAHMAN SKIP INDIA BRICS SUMMIT?

Earlier this month, India invited Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to attend the Brics Summit’s outreach session in New Delhi on September 12 and 13. The invitation was particularly significant for Bangladesh, which currently chairs BIMSTEC (The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and has sought Brics membership since at least 2023.

Beyond the outreach session, the summit would have given Rahman an opportunity to meet PM Narendra Modi for the first time, as well as hold discussions with other world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Separately, New Delhi invited Rahman for a bilateral visit following his appointment as Bangladesh's PM in February. The invitations came as New Delhi and Dhaka stepped up efforts to reset ties strained by Sheikh Hasina's ouster in 2024 and the subsequent Muhammad Yunus-led interim regime.

However, India has been reaching out extensively to the BNP and Tarique Rahman after ties hit a new low under the Yunus administration. Those efforts, however, might have hit a roadblock following Hasina's press conference last week.

Prothom Alo on Sunday, citing multiple senior Bangladesh government sources, reported that amid "the recent developments", the possibility of Rahman attending the Brics outreach session had "effectively disappeared".

On Monday, after Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi's courtesy meeting with Rahman, Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman said, "The government has not yet decided whether Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will attend the BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12–13... I am not an astrologer. So, I cannot predict on which exact day it will happen."

More concerning for New Delhi is that, despite yet to visit India since taking office, Rahman has already made two foreign trips — to Malaysia and China.

Meanwhile, news agency PTI reported on Sunday that Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi said that a meeting between Rahman and PM Narendra Modi could help ease the current strains in bilateral ties. The Daily Star similarly quoted Trivedi as saying on Monday there was no issue between India and Bangladesh that could not be resolved through dialogue.

Against this backdrop, if Rahman ultimately declines both invitations to visit India, it could make New Delhi and Dhaka’s efforts to reset their strained relationship considerably more difficult.

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