Bihar’s Thakurganj, Katihar, Bajpatti: How NDA Won In Minority Areas & Flipped The Script

Last Updated:November 16, 2025, 14:55 IST

There has been a wider trend of Democratic Alliance (NDA) leaders who have breached the supposedly minority-dominated seats

NDA’s ground mobilisation worked in its favour. (PTI File)

As Bihar entered its second phase of campaigning, the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) went complacent, knowing the Muslim-Yadav combine’s trust in the Mahagathbandhan, knowing certain votes would go to Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).

PM Narendra Modi then took the fight to Bihar’s Muslim-dominated seats — Araria, Bhagalpur. Modi turned the spotlight on ‘infiltration’ and blamed the Mahagathbandhan’s ‘vote bank politics’.

“A major challenge stands before these efforts of ours. That challenge is of the infiltrators. The NDA government is engaged with complete honesty in identifying each and every infiltrator and deporting them from the country. But these RJD and Congress people are busy protecting the infiltrators," he said in Bhagalpur.

One would expect that to be politically suicidal in a city where the Muslim population makes up approximately 29% of the population and, in terms of voters, the percentage is estimated to be around 26%. But this November 14, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Rohit Pandey has won from Bhagalpur, securing a total of 1,00,770 votes, defeating Congress candidate Ajeet Sharma by a margin of 13,474 votes.

He is not alone. There has been a wider trend of Democratic Alliance (NDA) leaders who have breached the supposedly minority-dominated seats, which were seen to be a no-go area for the BJP. But the 2025 Assembly election has flipped the script, at least to a certain extent.

Those who flipped the script

Take Narkatiaganj, for example, where Sanjay Kumar Pandey of BJP defeated Deepak Yadav (RJD) or the Narkatia assembly seat where Vishal Kumar of JD(U) defeated Lal Babu Prasad (Jan Suraaj Party). In Bihar’s Bajpatti, Rameshwar Kumar Mehto of Rashtriya Lok Morcha defeated his nearest contender Aajam Khan (Jan Suraaj Party).

Tarkishore Prasad of BJP won the Katihar assembly seat, defeating Ahmad Raza (All India Majlis-E-Inquilab-E-Millat). Just to give a demographic sense, the Muslim percentage in Katihar is approximately 22.1% in the city and around 44-45% in the district. Similarly, Gopal Kumar Agarwal of JD(U) won the Thakurganj assembly seat, defeating Basudev Singh (IND) and Ghulam Hasnain (All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen). The Muslim population percentage in the Thakurganj Assembly constituency is estimated to be around 58% of the electorate, making it a Muslim-majority seat.

How did the NDA parties manage to do it?

While some of it is of its own persuasions and strategies, some were the opposition’s lack of it. Here are 4 reasons NDA was able to breach the minority space and taste electoral success.

1) Split Opposition in Muslim-majority pockets

Where once a consolidated anti-NDA bloc could deliver large victories, this time the Muslim vote was split between the traditional Mahagathbandhan players (like the RJD, Congress, and the left) and third options who are visibly pro-minority like that of the AIMIM. That fragmentation lowered the effective anti-NDA vote, enabling NDA candidates to win with pluralities rather than majorities. There is evidence that suggests AIMIM and smaller parties eating into the Mahagathbandhan tally in Seemanchal and nearby areas.

2) Targeted welfare messaging and ground delivery

Campaign emphasis on visible welfare such as cash transfers, women-oriented schemes, infrastructure projects, and promises targeted at specific voter blocs appeared to blunt purely identity-based mobilisation. NDA’s ground mobilisation, particularly that of the JDU, went door to door in minority-dominated areas to drive home the point how they too are recipients of welfare projects — of state or Centre. They handed leaflets that included Nitish government’s schemes they can avail, including women’s reservation in government jobs, free/subsidised electricity, Mukhya Mantri Pratigya Yojana — a recent scheme to support youth with internships and workplace exposure, to name just a few.

3) ‘Susashan Babu’ Image

Nitish Kumar’s long incumbency and emphasis on law-and-order/development in many districts helped JD(U) hold and gain seats. In constituencies with mixed populations, voters who prioritised local governance or candidate competence sometimes chose NDA candidates despite community-level affiliations. In other words, even people from the minority community in mixed constituencies didn’t want to experiment with RJD and what it brings with it just for communal affiliation.

4) Low Muslim representation

The result — far fewer Muslim MLAs — is both a consequence and a cause: consequence because split votes and targeted campaigning reduced wins; signal because it suggests the Mahagathbandhan failed to present an effective, unified offer to minority voters this cycle. The spatial pattern (AIMIM wins in some pockets; NDA gains elsewhere) shows a complex realignment rather than a simple uniform swing.

Based on the 2022 Bihar caste-based survey, the Muslim population in Bihar is approximately 17.70% of the total population, which amounts to roughly 23.14 million people. Not all of them have voting rights, but this election, much of them did. It seems, when they did, they looked forward instead of looking backwards to a past that their grandson and granddaughters have rejected with contempt after seeing its dramatisation on Bollywood movies.

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