Bypoll Battle: Will BJP’s ‘Yadav vs Yadav’ Gamble Hurt Samajwadi Party in UP’s Karhal?

Last Updated:October 28, 2024, 17:32 IST

BJP has fielded Anujesh Yadav, brother-in-law of SP MP Dharmendra Yadav, against Tej Pratap Yadav for the by-election on November 13

Political observers said BJP’s ‘Yadav vs Yadav’ math may no longer be effective in breaking the caste dynamics and stronghold that the Akhilesh Yadav family has established in Karhal. (PTI)

Is the BJP’s move to field Anujesh Yadav against Samajwadi Party (SP)’s Tej Pratap Yadav in Karhal a revival of its 22-year-old Yadav vs Yadav formula?

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav slammed BJP for fielding the brother-in-law of their party’s MP Dharmendra Yadav, calling it a ‘Rishtedaar-Wadi’ party. Expressing confidence in the electorate of Karhal, Akhilesh Yadav asserted that people are committed to bringing the SP to power, not only in the upcoming state assembly bypolls but also in the 2027 assembly elections.

The beginning

It all began when BJP’s candidate announcement last Thursday set the stage for a Yadav vs Yadav contest in Karhal, which is traditionally an SP stronghold since 1993.

By fielding Anujesh Yadav, BJP aims to challenge the SP’s dominance. This bypoll was necessitated after Akhilesh Yadav vacated the seat on winning Lok Sabha elections from Kannauj. In addition to Karhal, the BJP announced candidates for six other Uttar Pradesh constituencies ahead of the November 13 assembly by-elections: Ramvir Singh Thakur from Kundarki, Sanjeev Sharma from Ghaziabad, Surendra Diler from Khair (SC), Deepak Patel from Phulpur, Dharmraj Nishad from Katehari, and Suchismita Maurya, the lone female candidate, from Majhawan.

Yadav vs Yadav formula not new for Karhal

Now, the million-dollar question is if BJP’s Yadav vs Yadav strategy will work in breaking up the caste equations in Karhal and turn the tide in their favour.

This is not the first time that BJP has used this formula. A similar situation was seen in 2002 during the state assembly polls when the party fielded five-time MLA Sobaran Singh Yadav against SP’s Anil Kumar Yadav from Karhal. According to the State Election Commission, in the neck-and-neck fight, Sobran Singh Yadav won with a narrow margin of 925 votes. This was perhaps the first and last time when BJP won Karhal seat which has been SP’s stronghold since 1993.

Will a similar formula work in the 2024 bypolls? Political observers said BJP’s ‘Yadav vs Yadav’ math may no longer be effective in breaking the caste dynamics and stronghold that the Yadav family has established in Karhal.

Shashikant Pandey, head of the political science department at Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar University in Lucknow, said: “Simply fielding a Yadav candidate doesn’t guarantee victory in a constituency like Karhal, which has been a Samajwadi Party bastion.” He highlighted that while the tactic may have had some impact in 2002, factors have since evolved, as has the SP’s influence.

According to experts, the Yadav family’s longstanding connection with Karhal and their strengthened political presence over the years make it challenging for opponents to unseat the SP purely through caste-based strategies.

2024 Lok Sabha Polls

The Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency in UP, comprising five assembly segments — Mainpuri, Bhongaon, Kishni, Karhal, and Jaswantnagar — has been an SP stronghold. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, SP candidate Dimple Yadav secured a massive victory with 5,98,526 votes, defeating BJP’s Jaiveer Singh, who received 3,76,887 votes. Mainpuri is a general seat and is not reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) or Scheduled Tribes (STs). The SP has held this constituency for 10 consecutive terms, including three bypolls. Former chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav represented Mainpuri five times from 1996 to 2019.

Karhal’s caste dynamics

Caste dynamics in the Karhal assembly constituency are crucial in determining electoral outcomes, particularly given its diverse voter base of approximately 3.75 lakh. The Yadav community, with around 1.30 lakh voters, holds significant sway, traditionally aligning with the Samajwadi Party. Scheduled Caste voters, numbering around 60,000, also play a vital role, often supporting parties that advocate for their rights. Other influential groups include 50,000 Shakyas, 30,000 Thakurs, and 30,000 Pal/Baghel voters, each capable of impacting the election results. Additionally, the constituency includes 25,000 Muslims, 20,000 Lodhis, 20,000 Brahmins, and approximately 15,000 Baniyas.

Who is Anujesh Yadav?

Anujesh Yadav switched to the BJP along with his wife Sandhya Yadav in 2021. Sandhya, Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin and Dharmendra Yadav’s twin sister, adds another layer to the familial connections. On the other hand, Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, a relative of Akhilesh Yadav and the son-in-law of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, is a former MP from Mainpuri. This bypoll in Karhal, political observers say, will not only intensify the poll battle between the two parties but also within the Yadav family.

Akhilesh Yadav called BJP a ‘Rishtedaar Wadi’ party

On October 25, Akhilesh Yadav addressed a gathering in Mainpuri, criticising BJP for becoming “Rishtedaar-Wadi” (relative-oriented) despite accusing the SP of being so. This election will feature a “fufa versus bhatija” (uncle versus nephew) dynamic, given their familial connection. Yadav emphasised Karhal’s historical ties to his late father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, saying: “Karhal has an unbreakable bond with Netaji and socialists.” He predicted a historic outcome, asserting that Tej Pratap will win by a landslide. Yadav framed the contest as a battle of policies, contrasting truth with lies and law-abiding citizens against criminals.

Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak expressed confidence in the BJP’s chances, saying: “BJP will emerge victorious in all nine assembly seats. People are impressed by the policies of PM Narendra Modi and the improved law and order situation and infrastructure in Uttar Pradesh.”

Nine Constituencies Up For Grabs

The Election Commission has announced by-elections for these nine constituencies, excluding Milkipur (Ayodhya), with the final date for candidate nominations set for October 25, and vote counting scheduled for November 23. The Samajwadi Party has already declared its candidates for seven constituencies: Karhal, Sisamau, Phulpur, Milkipur, Katehari, Majhawan, and Meerapur.

Karhal, India

News elections Bypoll Battle: Will BJP’s ‘Yadav vs Yadav’ Gamble Hurt Samajwadi Party in UP’s Karhal?