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Iran has missiles fast enough to threaten US warships, but not the sensors needed to find them. Against a mobile aircraft carrier protected by layered defences, hypersonic speed alone is not enough to guarantee a decisive strike.
UPDATED: Jan 28, 2026 16:30 IST
As tensions in West Asia simmer, the arrival of the US Navy’s aircraft carrier strike group led by USS Abraham Lincoln in the northern Arabian Sea has reignited a long-standing question in strategic circles: could Iran realistically threaten, or even sink a US aircraft carrier?
On paper, President Donald Trump would now have the option to order air strikes on Iran at short notice. The Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered carrier, brings with it around 60 F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets, placing large swathes of Iranian territory within striking distance.
But while US power projection is formidable, Iran is not without options of its own.
Iran’s Weak Air Force, Strong Missile Arsenal
Iran’s conventional air force is widely regarded as outdated and limited. Years of sanctions have left Tehran with a shrinking fleet of ageing combat aircraft, far fewer than the fighter jets embarked aboard a single US carrier.
Where Iran compensates, however, is in missile technology.
Tehran has built one of the most diverse missile arsenals in the world, including short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and, critically, hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic missiles travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, drastically reducing reaction times for defenders.
Iran claims to have operationalised hypersonic systems such as the Fattah-2, which employs a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle. Some of Iran’s ballistic missiles have also been adapted for anti-ship roles, a capability demonstrated indirectly in 2024, when Houthi rebels used Iranian-supplied missiles and drones to target merchant shipping and warships in the Gulf of Aden.
The Carrier’s Shield: Layered US Missile Defence
The Abraham Lincoln does not operate alone. It is protected by a carrier strike group composed of cruisers and destroyers equipped with the Aegis combat system, one of the most advanced naval air defence networks in the world.
This defensive umbrella operates in layers.
The outermost layer includes electronic warfare systems designed to jam or confuse incoming missiles. Beyond that are long-range interceptors such as the Standard Missile family. Each Aegis-equipped destroyer carries around 90 air defence missiles, including the RIM-174 SM-6, an extended-range interceptor with a reach exceeding 400 kilometres.
Newer variants of the Standard Missile also possess anti-ballistic missile capability, allowing them to intercept certain ballistic and hypersonic threats during different phases of flight.
How Iran Might Attempt a Strike
Any Iranian attempt to strike the Abraham Lincoln would likely rely on saturation rather than precision.
Iranian forces could launch hundreds of Shahed-136 long-range drones alongside ballistic and cruise missiles, aiming to overwhelm the strike group’s defences and force US warships to expend their interceptors. Only after exhausting these defensive layers would higher-value hypersonic missiles be launched in the hope of achieving a breakthrough.
Geography would also shape operations. The US carrier is unlikely to venture into confined waters such as the Persian Gulf or even the Gulf of Oman, where Iran’s coastal missile forces would have maximum reach. Instead, the Lincoln would operate in the open Arabian Sea, using Oman’s mountainous terrain as partial geographic shielding.
The Critical Weakness: Targeting the Carrier
Despite its missile prowess, Iran faces a decisive limitation: targeting.
Aircraft carriers are not stationary targets. A Nimitz-class carrier displaces over 100,000 tonnes but can travel at speeds exceeding 25 knots, covering hundreds of kilometres each day. Carrier strike groups constantly change course to avoid predictable movement patterns.
To successfully strike such a target, Iran would require a rapid, resilient kill chain, combining real-time satellite surveillance, data fusion, command-and-control systems, and immediate missile launch capability.
At present, Iran lacks a reliable near-real-time satellite tracking system capable of continuously monitoring a fast-moving carrier and feeding accurate targeting data into missile units. Without that, even the most advanced hypersonic missile risks being fired at empty ocean.
Capability Versus Reality
Theoretically, Iran possesses weapons capable of threatening even the world’s most powerful navy. In practice, sinking a US aircraft carrier remains extraordinarily difficult.
The Abraham Lincoln is protected not only by advanced missile defences and electronic warfare systems, but by mobility, operational secrecy, and layered redundancy. Iran’s missiles may be lethal, but without the surveillance and targeting infrastructure to guide them, their effectiveness against a moving carrier strike group is severely constrained.
The result is a familiar strategic paradox: Iran can raise the cost and risk of US naval operations, but reliably destroying a carrier would require capabilities it does not yet possess. For now, deterrence rests not on who has the biggest weapons, but on who can see, track, and strike first.
- Ends
Published By:
indiatodayglobal
Published On:
Jan 28, 2026
