Intel Flags Khalistani ‘Low-Risk Provocation’ Playbook After January 26 Flag Incident | Exclusive

Last Updated:January 28, 2026, 16:09 IST

Such incidents are designed to trigger outrage without requiring large networks or high operational risk, especially when Khalistani groups inside India are under severe pressure

The survival of Khalistani groups abroad has itself become a challenge, officials say, as Western countries face increasing diplomatic and security pressure.

Indian intelligence agencies have assessed the January 26 Khalistani flag incident as part of a repeatable, low-risk provocation playbook, warning that similar symbolic acts could be staged again at emotionally sensitive sites and dates to generate disproportionate political and diplomatic attention.

According to intelligence inputs accessed by CNN-News18, such incidents are designed to trigger outrage without requiring large networks or high operational risk, especially at a time when Khalistani groups inside India are under severe pressure following sustained crackdowns by the Investigation Agency (NIA) and other security agencies under the direction of Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

Officials say the crackdown has hollowed out the Khalistani ecosystem in Punjab, with most mid-level facilitators either arrested, placed under surveillance, or neutralised operationally, making it increasingly difficult for separatist groups to sustain organised activity within India.

Shift in Strategy: Disposable Actors

Faced with this constraint, Khalistani groups, working in conjunction with gang networks and handlers linked to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), have shifted tactics. Instead of running structured modules, they are now recruiting first-time, expendable actors to carry out isolated symbolic actions.

Intelligence agencies believe ISI’s role has also evolved. “The engagement has shifted from long-term strategic investment to one-time utilisation," a senior official said. These recruits are allegedly used once and discarded, with handlers unwilling to cover legal expenses if they are arrested or convicted.

Fundraising Fatigue in the Diaspora

The assessment also points to shrinking financial support for Khalistani activities abroad, particularly in traditional diaspora hubs such as Brampton in Canada. While footfall at Sunday kirtans and community events remains high, funds raised are reportedly modest.

“Collections that once ran much higher are now limited to around CAD 5,000–10,000 per event, which is considered low by diaspora standards," an official said. These funds are often raised under the guise of human rights advocacy or legal aid.

A portion of the money is then allegedly moved through informal transfer networks, routed via contacts in Lahore, before being pushed into Punjab in small, fragmented amounts to avoid detection.

Narrative Warfare Abroad

Officials say Khalistani groups now rely heavily on narrative amplification rather than ground impact. Minor incidents abroad are projected as evidence of systemic unrest against minorities in India, with diaspora activists tagging foreign lawmakers, rights bodies and international media outlets.

This strategy, intelligence officials note, often succeeds in generating diplomatic noise and media traction overseas, despite having negligible impact on the ground in India.

Pressure on Host Countries

The survival of Khalistani groups abroad has itself become a challenge, officials say, as Western countries face increasing diplomatic and security pressure. Indian agencies have repeatedly flagged to Canada and the UK concerns over the misuse of charities, NGO funding, memorial events and long-term fundraising drives for extremist activities.

Indian authorities have consistently urged foreign counterparts to closely monitor such funding channels, warning that terror-linked activities are beginning to create internal security complications for host countries themselves.

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