Kamala Harris, Donald Trump draw even in latest NBC News presidential polls

The US election, scheduled for November 5, seems to be heating up further. The latest NBC national poll shows former president Donald Trump is tied with Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has been bolstered recently by Republicans returning to their home states to shore up support for the former president.

The new poll, released three weeks before the country goes to vote, also highlighted Harris’s popularity declining compared to what it was a month ago. There’s also the glaring gender gap between the voters for both the candidates and voters deciding abortion is the most motivating issue in the upcoming election.

“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”

McInturff added that “headwinds” for Harris have helped her narrow the race. It included concerns amongst voters that Harris is no different from President Joe Biden. “She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.

Despite multiple polls much like this one, uncertainty around the election remains. The poll noted that 10% of voters said they might change their mind and a very small portion of voters still remain undecided. The poll also highlighted that an all-time high share of voters believe that this presidential election is bound to make “a great deal of difference” in their lives.

“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked Democratic pollster Horwitt.

“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he make the case that the chaos and personal behaviour that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” Horwitt added. “The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges.”

The new NBC poll, conducted from October 4 to October 8, puts Harris getting the support of 48% of registered voters, and Trump, too, at 48%. The remaining 4% of the voters remain undecided or wouldn’t vote for either candidate if forced to choose.

The last poll conducted from September’s NBC News poll found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44% – the result was, however, within the margin of error.

Historically, close elections are often decided by which party is able to urge its voters to turn up and cast the ballot; the NBC News polls offer a glimpse into what possible scenarios could occur,

If Republicans get a favourable environment, like a greater turnout amongst men, white voters and voters without college degrees, Trump will end up leading Harris by 2 points at 49%-47%.

On the contrary, if Democrats get a favourable environment, meaning more women, white voters with college degrees and voters of colour, turn up to the polls, the result would be Harris leading Trump by 3 points amongst registered voters.

As more polls come out before the election, it continues to become apparent that this presidential race will be balanced on a knife’s edge.