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Key scientific lessons learned during the Covid-19 pandemic are being forgotten, UK scientists have warned.
The researchers have raised the alarm as the nation marks the fifth anniversary of the introduction of lockdown, which was announced by then prime minister Boris Johnson on 23 March 2020.
The decision was made to prevent NHS hospitals being swamped by hundreds of thousands of new cases of seriously ill Covid patients.
However, there is no evidence that the health service would be any better prepared today should another lethal virus appear in the near future, scientists said.
“Every winter, even before Covid, hospitals were run very close to the edge,” said Prof Rowland Kao of Edinburgh University. “When the disease arrived, the NHS was simply not in a position to take any more. And there are no signs it will be different next time. Indeed, it is likely to be worse.”
Nor is there any evidence that the country has understood the psychological consequences triggered by placing the nation into lockdown.
It might have been moderately effective for reducing infection but it underestimated the need for connection, contact and community, said Dominic Abrams, professor of social psychology at Kent University: “There seemed to be almost no strategy to meet those fundamental needs. The social and psychological scars remain extensive and deep.”
And while social distancing, mask-wearing and the use of lateral flow tests were widely employed, there was no subsequent attempt to understand their usefulness and importance, according to Prof Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia.
“My big regret is that we still have not reached scientific consensus on the value and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs],” he said. “We know that NPIs do reduce transmission. But whether the benefits outweigh the harms is still far from clear.”
The international implications were stressed by Andrew Shepherd, director of the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network. “Lockdowns are not suitable for every country. During the pandemic, richer nations pressured low-income and middle-income countries to introduce lockdowns, with disastrous consequences.
“Most of these countries were not in a position to mitigate the accompanying loss of jobs, income and businesses in the same way that we could in the UK, and the result was massive impoverishment, which will take years to recover from.”
Dr Michael Head of the University of Southampton acknowledged that lockdowns were a vital component of any pandemic response. “But we do need smarter lockdowns that are in place earlier in the outbreak to better reduce transmission and therefore shorter in length.”
The anniversary has also been marked by the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice UK group, which is made up of almost 10,000 people who were bereaved by the pandemic. The group has written to the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, urging her not to go ahead with her proposed plan to cut disability payments.
“Rampant inequality contributed to the UK’s high [Covid-19] death toll,” the letter states.
“Disabled people were 11 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than non-disabled people. Instead of addressing the inequalities that contributed to that horrifying statistic, the government is pushing ahead with plans to slash disability benefits, driving more people into poverty and making the country even less prepared for future pandemics.
“The government promised to learn from the pandemic but appears to be suffering from Covid amnesia, forgetting the devastating cost of an underfunded health service and public services cut to the bone.”
