NASA Satellite Set To Crash Back To Earth: What Happens During Its Fiery Fall?

Last Updated:March 11, 2026, 10:56 IST

The satellite’s return will be an uncontrolled re-entry, meaning the space agency cannot direct or control its path, with most of it expected to burn up in the atmosphere.

A defunct satellite launched by NASA about 14 years ago to study Earth’s radiation belts is set to fall back to the planet on Tuesday. The spacecraft, weighing around 1,323 pounds and known as Van Allen Probe A, is expected to re-enter the atmosphere at about 7:45 p.m. EDT, according to estimates by the United States Space Force.

The satellite’s return will be an uncontrolled re-entry, meaning the space agency cannot direct or control its path. Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up as it passes through the atmosphere during the descent.

However, the agency noted in a statement that “some components are expected to survive re-entry."

“The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low, approximately 1 in 4,200," NASA said. “NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions."

What Happens When Satellite Falls Back To Earth?

Thousands of satellites currently orbit Earth, enabling services such as television, internet, communication and navigation. More than 5,000 satellites are already in space, and the number is expected to rise sharply in the coming years, including thousands planned under SpaceX’s Starlink programme.

Objects falling from orbit, however, are not unusual. Each year, over 100 tonnes of space debris re-enters Earth’s atmosphere. Most of it burns up before reaching the ground, which is why these events usually go unnoticed.

If a very large number of satellites were to stop functioning and begin falling back to Earth, the first major impact would be the sudden loss of satellite-based services. Communication networks, internet connectivity and GPS systems would be disrupted, affecting navigation, aviation and global economic activity.

The descent of satellites would not happen all at once. Depending on their altitude and speed, some could take years or even decades to re-enter the atmosphere. When they finally fall, many parts would still burn up during re-entry, but some fragments could survive and reach the surface.

Under normal circumstances, scientists try to control a satellite’s final descent and guide it toward remote ocean areas or uninhabited regions. But if a large number were to fall without control, debris could land anywhere on Earth. Although oceans cover most of the planet, some fragments could still reach land and cause damage due to their extremely high speed.

Even so, the chances of such a scenario are extremely low. In most cases, Earth’s atmosphere protects the planet by destroying the majority of objects long before they reach the ground.

Why Predicting Satellite Re-entry Is Difficult?

Predicting exactly when and where an uncontrolled spacecraft will fall back to Earth is difficult. Factors such as atmospheric conditions, space weather and the satellite’s changing orbit influence the process. For the re-entry of Van Allen Probe A, the United States Space Force estimates a possible timing window with an uncertainty of about 24 hours.

The probe was launched on August 30, 2012, along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, by NASA. The mission was designed to study the Van Allen radiation belts, rings of high-energy particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field. These belts help shield the planet from solar storms, cosmic radiation and streams of charged particles known as solar wind, although astronauts must pass through them when travelling into deeper space.

During the mission, the twin probes provided important insights into the radiation belts and even discovered a temporary third belt that can appear during intense solar activity. The spacecraft continued operating until 2019, when they ran out of fuel and the mission was concluded.

Scientists initially expected both probes to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 2034. However, stronger solar activity in recent years has increased atmospheric drag, gradually lowering their orbits. While Van Allen Probe A is now expected to return earlier, Van Allen Probe B is not likely to re-enter the atmosphere before 2030.

News world NASA Satellite Set To Crash Back To Earth: What Happens During Its Fiery Fall?

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